Simpler example..

Somebody I know very well. He is a lorry driver and really not the rabid right-wing racist or xenophobe. He lives in a decent area, has a family and makes ends meet comfortably. However, he voted Leave and still feels very strongly about it.

When I finally did pin him down to the effect he thought it would have on him personally, his answer was that his salary would increase significantly because he would no longer be in competition with "cheaper foreign lorry drivers".

So I asked him - if you believe that following Brexit all or the majority of the foreign drivers will have to or choose to leave Britain, when the owner of your company is faced with being able to employ only 35 drivers for his 1m wage budget rather than the 40 he currently has, what do you think his most likely short term reaction would be?

a) increase the salary of those remaining 35 because his wage budget would stay the same, and he now had room to reward employees purely for being British, despite a reducing in his turnover due to being 5 FTE short ?

b) Stay at the same head count and turnover, and increase his wage budget to reward you for being British, accepting the reduction in his profit and the increased risk of going out of business with those jobs disappearing entirely ?

c) Freeze existing salaries and lower salaries for new drivers because he is no longer able to fill the gap with a few "cheaper foreign drivers" without reducing his profit?

or even

d) If c) was successful, do you think he might not continue to replace the higher paid Brits over time with this new pool of employees who would accept a lower wage, thereby increasing his profit and forcing down he average salary for British lorry drivers ?

All conjecture of course, but it certainly encouraged a bit more of a genuine, less emotional discussion about the impact than if we were discussing at the levels of WTO vs Norway vs Switzerland vs Remain.

Posted By: Steve in Holland on March 23rd 2019 at 14:48:13

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