That's if you believe there is a perfect correlation between budget and performance and

other factors such as poor recruitment or management, and tactical innovation are not also influences on performance. That not withstanding the point I was making is that 'over performance' which Knapper seems to be relying upon is not a sustainable strategy. Regression toward the mean cannot be avoided over the medium to long term.

Posted By: The Gaffer on June 10th 2025 at 11:16:04

Message Thread

Knapper kept mentioning 'and the need to over perform' (NCFC) - seminated_woolly, Jun 10, 09:34:17
- LM is a decent coach, Ben was just showing confidence in Manning.. (n/m) (NCFC) - Goosebumps, Jun 10, 11:53:13
- Bristol did much better last term than analysis of their squad would suggest as par (NCFC) - Old Man, Jun 10, 10:56:07
- Define “over-perform” (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 10:44:23
  - Id be incredibly concerned if over-perform was just management speak (NCFC) - seminated_woolly, Jun 10, 13:35:47
  - Further to that, I think I noticed Manning referring to “good characters”… (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 11:23:14
    - Bit of a word salad there but you know what I mean (n/m) (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 11:28:32
      - ChatGPT says you meant this (NCFC) - Old Git, Jun 10, 12:34:35
        
        Ha ha. Pretty much. (n/m) (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 12:42:54
      - I read this as (NCFC) - camcan, Jun 10, 11:45:13
        
        That’s clever man management (n/m) (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 12:25:37
        
        Seriously though, it is like a classroom. (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 12:39:27
        
        TL;DR - you need leaders, but everyone needs to be a bit of a leader (n/m) (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 12:41:49
        
        I really think the Shane Duffy being dropped moment (NCFC) - camcan, Jun 10, 13:19:39
        
        It should never have got to that point (n/m) (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 13:22:53
  - Me,in the sack (n/m) (NCFC) - Augustus Pablo, Jun 10, 11:19:05
    - With the lead piping? (n/m) (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 11:23:32
      - The candelabra (n/m) (NCFC) - Augustus Pablo, Jun 10, 11:31:25
        
        Saw them twice at the Brixton Academy in 87. The Bassist exploded during the sound check. (n/m) (NCFC) - Milko, Jun 10, 12:17:47
        
        ^ has a frilly willy (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Jun 10, 11:35:02
  - £££££££ (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 11:02:18
    - This .... (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 12:08:40
  - 100 this. Even if you could quantify 'over perform' it is statistically impossible as (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Jun 10, 11:01:49
    - I don't think that's true; we know what everyone's budget is (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 11:02:53
      - That's if you believe there is a perfect correlation between budget and performance and (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Jun 10, 11:16:04
        
        It's easy to say if the club is... (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 12:21:41
        
        Yes, and it's budget that dictates what that long term mean is (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 11:25:43
  - It's twaddle speak. Like giving 110% (NCFC) - camcan, Jun 10, 10:50:52
    - If it is twaddle speak then Knapper is truly out of his depth (NCFC) - seminated_woolly, Jun 10, 13:36:20
      - I think what we mean is that over-perform or out-perform (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 15:32:03
    - I don't agree. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 12:29:39
      - You’re obsessed with data and numbers, which I understand (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 12:55:53
        
        You kind of made my point. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 21:12:56
        
        all true APB (NCFC) - dr fanta, Jun 10, 14:56:52
    - indeed it is (NCFC) - dr fanta, Jun 10, 12:02:13
    - I like “pre-order” (NCFC) - APB, Jun 10, 10:53:00
- It’s language used by Atanasio. He kept saying that about the Brewers (n/m) (NCFC) - Tony Martin, Jun 10, 10:41:08
  - It's pretty simple isn't it? (NCFC) - mr carra, Jun 10, 11:39:32
    - Yes, that's exactly the metric he is using. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 12:31:46
    - Yep (n/m) (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 12:02:09
- Whenever we do well we have a team that is better than the sum of its parts (NCFC) - Knitted Jesus, Jun 10, 09:56:57
  - Agree totally (except Alex Neil's team) (NCFC) - seminated_woolly, Jun 10, 10:18:21
    - If we don't outperform, then either him or Knapper will go (NCFC) - CWC, Jun 10, 12:45:18
- If we don't out perform our budget, we aren't getting promoted (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 09:44:58
  - 1 and 2 underrated , 3 overrated. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 12:53:15
    - I'd say Alex Neil vs Neil Adams is the obvious argument against your view on coaching (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 13:13:22
      - No that kind of enhances my view. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 21:38:44
  - And I don't disagree with any of that (NCFC) - seminated_woolly, Jun 10, 10:17:25
    - No, not necessarily (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 10:28:35
      - That's the question though. What are the metrics to measure this 'over-performing' (NCFC) - seminated_woolly, Jun 10, 13:38:04
        
        Yeah, USAC is right when he says it's easy to see whether a club is over/under performing (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 14:00:24
    - Depends how badly he does (NCFC) - jamesward, Jun 10, 10:20:22
      - I think there is def a scenario where he finishes... (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 12:57:23
  - It’s all 3 isn’t it and an efficient player trading model (n/m) (NCFC) - loz, Jun 10, 09:47:09
    - Yes - I think it is. Certainly if we think back to promotions under Lambert and Farke (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 09:51:38
      - That's just not true. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 10, 12:48:49
        
        Net spend on transfers? (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Jun 10, 13:05:49
- Took it to mean over perform when… (NCFC) - loz, Jun 10, 09:43:17
  - Yup,.I'm sure that's what he meant (NCFC) - seminated_woolly, Jun 10, 10:19:13
- Wonder when Knapper himself will over perform … (n/m) (NCFC) - footymadman, Jun 10, 09:40:12

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