Example.

Give the same quality of chance to a great striker and a bad striker.

Let's say the chance is xG 0.80 from the exact same spot.

Neither is correct as the great striker will score nearly all the time and the bad striker maybe less than 50%

So what did the xG tell us.....nothing...without the context of the ability of players/team and opposition of the chance it's almost always incorrect. (It's based on a mythical average team and opposition)

When people talk about the xG of one game it's absolute bollocks....do you not see that.....
Maybe over a season it's slightly more meaningful but less than the actual League position.

Your claim it's numbers except we get variations of the numbers, people can't agree on the quality of chance. That subjectivity is a huge weakness.

Posted By: usacanary on November 4th 2025 at 13:23:43

Message Thread

TNC still on Tilt but to their credit they nailed xG...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 00:56:08
- Might be a bit stupid here but…. (NCFC) - Pistonjuice, Nov 4, 11:26:26
  - Total xG so far this season is 17.8 compared to actual goals scored of 12. (n/m) (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 12:10:37
    - OK so tell me how many goals we SHOULD have scored. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 18:09:27
    - Bad team almost always underperform xG (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 13:27:50
- Chris Reeve nails nothing. Too full of his own self-importance. (NCFC) - Boyer, Nov 4, 08:41:37
- Proper odd being against xg, it’s like being anti corners conceded stats (n/m) (NCFC) - Allen, Nov 4, 07:10:57
  - LOLz .....Thank you for making my point. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 14:32:28
- Let it go… xG isn’t perfect and some people over-emphasise it or use it out of context (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 06:06:10
  - xg is exactly the same as Polling pre election. It's mostly bollocks (n/m) (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Nov 4, 07:15:17
    - It should be banned and is ruining football (n/m) (NCFC) - footymadman, Nov 4, 09:10:28
      - Interesting take. Completely wrong, but interesting. (n/m) (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 09:19:05
        
        Dragged out a lot by coaches when things are going badly... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 13:29:56
        
        Yes that's completely wrong of them. (n/m) (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 15:26:51
    - You seemed to miss the point where I said that xG doesn’t predict outcomes. (n/m) (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 07:19:47
      - Please tell us what it does show or predict then? (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 14:35:09
        
        xG was never meant to be a predictor. Don't come at it from a sports betting angle. (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 15:26:11
        
        Again, im asking, tell me how its useful, what can be gained from it. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 18:06:58
        
        See man response below. (n/m) (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 23:19:06
        
        "my" (n/m) (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 23:20:29
      - It's just some odd creation by OCD pythagoreans who think live can be explained by numbers (n/m) (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Nov 4, 07:24:34
        
        Life absolutely includes things numbers can’t capture but the fact we can’t quantify (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 08:02:33
        
        Example. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 13:23:43
        
        Why do you keep quoting league position. That's a single raw data point. it tells you (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 16:05:05
        
        Wrong totally wrong..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 4, 17:53:21
        
        Why do you keep mentioning sports betting. How many times do I have to say that the (NCFC) - The Gaffer, Nov 4, 23:14:35
        
        *life (n/m) (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Nov 4, 07:24:55

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