Seems to be a more accurate assessment than the Monte Carlo analysis...

Monte Carlo - in my mind - is for integrating multiple probability density functions. Seems to be overcomplicatimg a pretty simple problem. We either play great, or we play s**t. We need to play great in 5 of the next 6 games. Then great in the following 3. Anything else and we don't get promotion.

Posted By: Timmy_Goat on April 8th 2023 at 21:59:55

Message Thread

Table Of Tilt incoming..... Tilt your Tits off...Long post. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:12:57
- I went on a tilting table once (NCFC) - Captain Bligh, Apr 8, 22:05:43
- Millwall got piss easy fixtures. Blackburn last two games Luton and Millwall. (n/m) (NCFC) - Jim, Apr 8, 21:37:00
  - Millwall don’t seem in great form (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 21:56:49
    - Would love their fixtures (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 22:12:45
- So, cutting a long story short, maybe we make it, maybe we don’t? (n/m) (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Apr 8, 20:54:20
  - Seems to be a more accurate assessment than the Monte Carlo analysis... (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 8, 21:59:55
- I had a pint and pondered it for a bit (NCFC) - paulg, Apr 8, 19:51:41
  - We might have the best two defenders available. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:57:54
    - If that's your answer (NCFC) - paulg, Apr 8, 22:23:53
  - Mine does (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 19:53:27
- Way too much time on your hands (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 19:38:20
  - Thats the downside to being Succesful and Filthy Rich..... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:18:41
- I have us 33% for the playoffs (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 19:37:06
  - More made up idiotic shit by Mikey. Ignores all the math.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:56:09
    - You said Trump has no chance of winning (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:01:32
      - Good grief is the best you can do. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:09:42
        
        You said he has no chance because you’re annoyed by him? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:12:45
        
        Are you really asking why Donald Trump tilts me off..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:22:53
        
        Pep is a Fraud, Haaland is a tap in merchant (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Apr 8, 21:28:42
        
        The Haaland quote is Charles I think (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 21:43:50
        
        You and him have had a clear rivalry for a long time (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Apr 8, 21:46:39
        
        How did I mock it exactly? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 21:55:31
        
        You 2 literally never agree (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Apr 8, 22:00:15
        
        Didn’t we agree earlier about Burnley? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 22:04:28
        
        I don't know (n/m) (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Apr 8, 22:07:01
        
        Incredible tilt level this (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:31:12
- Some suprising discoveries. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:23:12
  - The major complications are..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:44:35
    - 2 draws is fine if Blackburn don’t win any of next 2 (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 19:50:00
      - and what the probability of Blackburn not winning the next two..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:00:32
        
        Hull game isn’t priced up yet (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:10:03
        
        Why do you need that? (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:17:09
        
        You seem really really upset (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:29:26
- 50% chance. So we might do, but equally we might not. Marvellous stuff. (n/m) (NCFC) - tudders, Apr 8, 19:21:36
- Thanks for another lengthy “the bookies are right” post. (n/m) (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Apr 8, 19:18:30
  - Im not sure if you understand how markets work. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:24:41

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