Table Of Tilt incoming..... Tilt your Tits off...Long post.

If all teams win at their seasonal form for the first 40 games we get the following points totals (I'm ignoring top 4)


5 Blackburn 71.94
6 Millwall 71.3
7 Norwich 69
8 Preston 67.85
9 Coventry 66.7
10 West Brom 66.05

So lets have some fun and look at Smiths form vs Wagner
Smith = 1.38 PPG
Wagner 1.71 PPG

Does that make much difference if we plug into the table of tilt?

5 Blackburn 71.94
6 Millwall 71.3
7 Norwich 70.29
8 Preston 67.85
9 Coventry 66.7
10 West Brom 66.05

Clearly no because we have so few games left its effect is minimal. Over a whole season 1.71 PPG is 78.66 points which has never failed to make the playoffs.

Some interesting factors in the run in to the playoffs.
Its possible both Swansea and West Brom will have little to play for when we play them.

2nd interesting factor is we do have a good GD compared to Blackburn and Millwall.
With things being so close in the teams 4th to 10th this may be hugely important with realistically 2 spots up for grabs.

The negatives are it cannot be stressed how much of an edge Blackburn and Millwall have over us.
Both have essentially a 2 point advantage with just 18 points to play for.
That is pretty massive even if it doesn't sound like much.

Now we look at the strength of schedule.
Clearly Rotherham at home is worth more points than Boro away. Even so most teams will have tough games in the run in and at least we don't have to play the top 2 which would be the most difficult.

TLDR.... what will it take to make the playoffs, the GD is a huge factor if we don't get beaten

78 points 6W 0D 0L ~100%
76 points 5W 1D 0L ~100%
75 points 5W 0D 1L ~99%
74 points 4W 2D 0L ~99%
73 points 4W 1D 1L ~74%
72 points 4W 0D 2L ~52%
72 points 3W 3D 0L ~69%
71 points 3W 2D 1L ~46%
70 points 3W 1D 2L ~13%
70 points 2W 4D 0L ~27%
69 points 3W 0D 3L ~4%
69 points 2W 3D 1L ~7%
68 points 2W 2D 2L ~0%
68 points 1W 5D 0L ~1%
67 points 2W 1D 3L ~0%
67 points 1W 4D 1L ~0%
66 points 2W 0D 4L ~0%
66 points 1W 3D 2L ~0%

I did a Monte Carlo simulation based on the last 6 games based on form under Wagner (small samples to be totally fair and transparent) and the strength of opposition.

I get to around 71.3 points which gives us around a 50% chance of making the playoffs.
Interestingly looking at the betting markets we are around 11/10 to make the playoffs which is obviously pretty close to this.

Posted By: usacanary on April 8th 2023 at 19:12:57

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