Some suprising discoveries.

When I ran the simulations I was really surprised by some of the results and probabilities.

The most surprising by far was
70 points 2W 4D 0L ~27%

This comes down purely to GD as winning 2 games and drawing 4 games will only make it more positive.
This essentially turns 70 points into a faux 71 points.
If another team is on 70 its unlikely they would have increased their GD much with only 70 points.

If asked if drawing at Boro would be bad result, I would have thought it would be slightly negative at 1PPG but overall its actually a very slight positive which again surprised me.

Posted By: usacanary on April 8th 2023 at 19:23:12

Message Thread

Table Of Tilt incoming..... Tilt your Tits off...Long post. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:12:57
- I went on a tilting table once (NCFC) - Captain Bligh, Apr 8, 22:05:43
- Millwall got piss easy fixtures. Blackburn last two games Luton and Millwall. (n/m) (NCFC) - Jim, Apr 8, 21:37:00
  - Millwall don’t seem in great form (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 21:56:49
    - Would love their fixtures (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 22:12:45
- So, cutting a long story short, maybe we make it, maybe we don’t? (n/m) (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Apr 8, 20:54:20
  - Seems to be a more accurate assessment than the Monte Carlo analysis... (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Apr 8, 21:59:55
- I had a pint and pondered it for a bit (NCFC) - paulg, Apr 8, 19:51:41
  - We might have the best two defenders available. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:57:54
    - If that's your answer (NCFC) - paulg, Apr 8, 22:23:53
  - Mine does (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 19:53:27
- Way too much time on your hands (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Apr 8, 19:38:20
  - Thats the downside to being Succesful and Filthy Rich..... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:18:41
- I have us 33% for the playoffs (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 19:37:06
  - More made up idiotic shit by Mikey. Ignores all the math.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:56:09
    - You said Trump has no chance of winning (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:01:32
      - Good grief is the best you can do. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:09:42
        
        You said he has no chance because you’re annoyed by him? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:12:45
        
        Are you really asking why Donald Trump tilts me off..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:22:53
        
        Pep is a Fraud, Haaland is a tap in merchant (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Apr 8, 21:28:42
        
        The Haaland quote is Charles I think (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 21:43:50
        
        You and him have had a clear rivalry for a long time (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Apr 8, 21:46:39
        
        How did I mock it exactly? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 21:55:31
        
        You 2 literally never agree (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Apr 8, 22:00:15
        
        Didn’t we agree earlier about Burnley? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 22:04:28
        
        I don't know (n/m) (NCFC) - Lentil Weaver, Apr 8, 22:07:01
        
        Incredible tilt level this (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:31:12
- Some suprising discoveries. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:23:12
  - The major complications are..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:44:35
    - 2 draws is fine if Blackburn don’t win any of next 2 (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 19:50:00
      - and what the probability of Blackburn not winning the next two..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:00:32
        
        Hull game isn’t priced up yet (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:10:03
        
        Why do you need that? (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 20:17:09
        
        You seem really really upset (NCFC) - SCC 28, Apr 8, 20:29:26
- 50% chance. So we might do, but equally we might not. Marvellous stuff. (n/m) (NCFC) - tudders, Apr 8, 19:21:36
- Thanks for another lengthy “the bookies are right” post. (n/m) (NCFC) - Legacy Fan, Apr 8, 19:18:30
  - Im not sure if you understand how markets work. (NCFC) - usacanary, Apr 8, 19:24:41

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