It's clear that vaccination won't drop R < 1 alone

So we need lockdown or other control measures to limit transmission even when 'everyone' has been vaccinated.

The question is really how much protection does vaccination give against dying. A lot but not 100 percent? Seems reasonable. So if we find we open up rapidly and we get a rise in transmission we might find we get deaths from a proportion of those vaccinated, a proportion of those under 18 and a proportion of those who declined vaccination.

IMHO the third group will dominate. It is too early to tell isn't it. We should just be grateful that new cases are dropping rapidly and new vaccinations are rising rapidly.

I can definitely see the world dividing into vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, with vaccinated going to football games / holiday / pubs / restaurants /etc while unvaccinated become second class citizens.

Posted By: Timmy_Goat on February 12th 2021 at 22:34:02

Message Thread

when do you honestly think we will all be allowed back i to carrow raod? (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 20:41:09
- Cannot see a near capacity crowd before 22/23 season (NCFC) - Boyer, Feb 12, 23:44:10
- During the autumnal equinox (n/m) (NCFC) - Ken Breadstick, Feb 12, 22:40:20
- August 2021 (NCFC) - Kangol Canary, Feb 12, 22:10:52
  - 3rd wave will be kicking off then too (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:12:12
    - ww3 too (n/m) (NCFC) - Chris Peacock, Feb 12, 22:16:04
  - Pure ejaculation that (n/m) (NCFC) - ingi, Feb 12, 22:11:30
- April 2022 (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 12, 22:06:04
- Honestly me old ship mate (NCFC) - ingi, Feb 12, 22:02:37
- No restrictions *at all*? Years, possibly never (NCFC) - CWC, Feb 12, 21:44:28
  - if we get jumbo1's plumber on the case we could all be back in tomorrow (n/m) (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 21:48:03
- Large gatherings prob won't be allowed until 2022 at the earliest (n/m) (NCFC) - Larry Hagman, Feb 12, 21:40:32
- I'm thinking 2022 sometime, before full return (n/m) (NCFC) - Worthing Yellow, Feb 12, 21:37:14
  - ^ITK (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Feb 12, 21:38:53
- I think, therefore I am saying - next season bruv (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Feb 12, 21:28:21
  - Is you heating on yet? (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 12, 21:29:28
    - I is well hot (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Feb 12, 21:38:17
      - you done well to get it fixed same day (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 21:41:27
        
        our blokes great, he always fits me in (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Feb 12, 21:52:34
        
        Garry's a plumber? (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 21:54:48
      - Good to hear you are all warm and fuzzy (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 12, 21:40:13
    - your (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 12, 21:31:26
- 9 (NCFC) - Kev, Feb 12, 21:27:36
- At 3pm on a Saturday (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Man, Feb 12, 21:17:59
  - lolz (n/m) (NCFC) - Chris Peacock, Feb 12, 22:08:44
  - excellent news (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 21:19:04
- Depends on how variants develop (NCFC) - ede, Feb 12, 21:02:43
- My own feeling would be why not next year (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 20:53:26
  - Hmmmm (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:11:57
    - that sounds much better. thanks (n/m) (NCFC) - Chris Peacock, Feb 12, 22:23:32
      - And letting the anti vaxers die (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:27:47
        
        That's gonna be a big pile of corpses :-/ (n/m) (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:34:45
        
        Actually, to clarify my view (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:42:13
        
        'Could well end up dying' (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 12, 23:47:46
        
        Not being in the best of health doesn’t make you ill (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 23:52:06
        
        I don’t think the 20% is refusal (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:48:34
    - Cheers I don’t get how they model so many dying still (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:22:05
      - It's clear that vaccination won't drop R < 1 alone (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:34:02
        
        Interesting (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:45:42
        
        Indeed (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 23:10:59
        
        👍 (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 23:14:15
  - well that's a bit of a depresser (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 20:57:22
    - Probably (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 12, 21:13:44
      - I don’t think we’ll see any more lockdowns here (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 21:18:59
        
        I mean (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 12, 21:21:58
        
        But ‘lockdowns’ are just the most extreme restrictions (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 21:31:56
    - Yeah there are some positive outcomes (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 21:08:12
- Next season (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 12, 20:52:49
  - Me too. (n/m) (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 21:19:58
  - I think this too (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 12, 21:17:50

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