Hmmmm

Danone.

So peak R value early 2020 was about 3.0. With B117 strain 1.5 times as transmissible, returning to 'old normal' gives R=4.5.

Vaccinations will reduce that? Vaccinate all over 18s. 79% population. AZ said their vaccine reduces transmissibility by 67%. 4.5*0.79*0.67=2.38. This means even with everyone 18+ vaccinated our current strains are readily transmissible. We need lockdown/tiers to control transmission.

UK population = 67M. 53M over 18. Say 15 percent 18+ reject vaccines. 45 million need vaccination? 2 doses each. 90 million jabs total. 14 million done already. 76 million to go. 0.5 million per day. 152 days. Rate of vaccination increasing so say 4 months. Mid June? Everyone 18+ who wants a jab has 2 jabs. Start vaccinating against minor E484K South Africa strain.

Vaccine reduces probability of hospitalisation by circa 99% and death 99.9%. Predominantly those who have rejected vaccines will be dying. Will government introduce measures to protect those who decline vaccine or open economy? Open economy. Would the general public abide by rules to protect anti-vaxxers? Doubt it.

My cynical view is that at the start of next season, the majority of the population will be vaccinated, there will be a complete s**t storm about 'vaccine hesistant' death rate, particularly in BAME population. Getting the economy up and running will be a key objective. You might need a 2-jab vaccine certificate/app to get in to Carrow road but I'm pretty sure fiscal recovery will take precedence over the lives of those who don't fancy being vaccinated

Posted By: Timmy_Goat on February 12th 2021 at 22:11:57

Message Thread

when do you honestly think we will all be allowed back i to carrow raod? (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 20:41:09
- Cannot see a near capacity crowd before 22/23 season (NCFC) - Boyer, Feb 12, 23:44:10
- During the autumnal equinox (n/m) (NCFC) - Ken Breadstick, Feb 12, 22:40:20
- August 2021 (NCFC) - Kangol Canary, Feb 12, 22:10:52
  - 3rd wave will be kicking off then too (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:12:12
    - ww3 too (n/m) (NCFC) - Chris Peacock, Feb 12, 22:16:04
  - Pure ejaculation that (n/m) (NCFC) - ingi, Feb 12, 22:11:30
- April 2022 (n/m) (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 12, 22:06:04
- Honestly me old ship mate (NCFC) - ingi, Feb 12, 22:02:37
- No restrictions *at all*? Years, possibly never (NCFC) - CWC, Feb 12, 21:44:28
  - if we get jumbo1's plumber on the case we could all be back in tomorrow (n/m) (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 21:48:03
- Large gatherings prob won't be allowed until 2022 at the earliest (n/m) (NCFC) - Larry Hagman, Feb 12, 21:40:32
- I'm thinking 2022 sometime, before full return (n/m) (NCFC) - Worthing Yellow, Feb 12, 21:37:14
  - ^ITK (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Feb 12, 21:38:53
- I think, therefore I am saying - next season bruv (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Feb 12, 21:28:21
  - Is you heating on yet? (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 12, 21:29:28
    - I is well hot (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Feb 12, 21:38:17
      - you done well to get it fixed same day (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 21:41:27
        
        our blokes great, he always fits me in (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Feb 12, 21:52:34
        
        Garry's a plumber? (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 21:54:48
      - Good to hear you are all warm and fuzzy (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 12, 21:40:13
    - your (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 12, 21:31:26
- 9 (NCFC) - Kev, Feb 12, 21:27:36
- At 3pm on a Saturday (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Man, Feb 12, 21:17:59
  - lolz (n/m) (NCFC) - Chris Peacock, Feb 12, 22:08:44
  - excellent news (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 21:19:04
- Depends on how variants develop (NCFC) - ede, Feb 12, 21:02:43
- My own feeling would be why not next year (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 20:53:26
  - Hmmmm (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:11:57
    - that sounds much better. thanks (n/m) (NCFC) - Chris Peacock, Feb 12, 22:23:32
      - And letting the anti vaxers die (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:27:47
        
        That's gonna be a big pile of corpses :-/ (n/m) (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:34:45
        
        Actually, to clarify my view (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:42:13
        
        'Could well end up dying' (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 12, 23:47:46
        
        Not being in the best of health doesn’t make you ill (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 23:52:06
        
        I don’t think the 20% is refusal (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:48:34
    - Cheers I don’t get how they model so many dying still (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:22:05
      - It's clear that vaccination won't drop R < 1 alone (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 22:34:02
        
        Interesting (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 22:45:42
        
        Indeed (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 23:10:59
        
        👍 (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 23:14:15
  - well that's a bit of a depresser (NCFC) - Tombs, Feb 12, 20:57:22
    - Probably (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 12, 21:13:44
      - I don’t think we’ll see any more lockdowns here (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 21:18:59
        
        I mean (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 12, 21:21:58
        
        But ‘lockdowns’ are just the most extreme restrictions (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 21:31:56
    - Yeah there are some positive outcomes (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 12, 21:08:12
- Next season (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 12, 20:52:49
  - Me too. (n/m) (NCFC) - Timmy_Goat, Feb 12, 21:19:58
  - I think this too (n/m) (NCFC) - promethian1, Feb 12, 21:17:50

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