I’m not an epidemiologist by any stretch

But I would think given manufacture / supply is the main problem in the first instance, giving more people a 70% effective vaccine is more effective than giving fewer people a 90% vaccine.

So I would think it goes something like:

1. Pfizer / Moderna vaccine to the very vulnerable population plus health care workers / care home personnel
2. If that supply is exhausted, 1.5 doses of the Oxford vaccine to the rest of those people
3. Once 1 and 2 complete, everyone gets 1 shot of the Oxford vaccine

1 and 2 are interchangeable depending on which is most effective and works quickest in that population.

Surely the combo set out above with some sensible, steady relaxation of restrictions protects the vulnerable to the greatest extent possible, while getting the r rate right down

Posted By: SimonOTBC on November 23rd 2020 at 09:21:33

Message Thread

This Oxford vaccine news is tremendous (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:07:25
- The price and the fact it can go in the fridge is presumably massive (General Chat) - Jim, Nov 23, 10:22:07
  - Yes, easy to over focus on what it means for the UK (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 10:23:26
- Does the vaccine only work on those who wouldn't have needed hospital treatment? (n/m) (General Chat) - Larry Hagman, Nov 23, 09:38:25
  - The phase 2 trials showed that it worked well on the older population (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:41:14
  - No (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:39:56
    - The vaccine seems to work in a lower percentage than who go to hospital with Covid (General Chat) - Larry Hagman, Nov 23, 09:45:58
      - No what it is saying is that of those on whom the vaccine did not work so as to prevent (General Chat) - Jim, Nov 23, 10:11:48
        
        If that's the case then that's incredibly reassuring (General Chat) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Nov 23, 10:18:14
      - Doesn’t seem to be any suggestion of that (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:50:23
- you not concerned bout the long term side effects at all? nobody knows what these are (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:20:35
  - Not worried Ill drink anything! (n/m) (General Chat) - KevinBond, Nov 23, 13:22:13
  - A compressed timescale isnt necessarily a rushed one (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 23, 09:52:23
    - Unless an effect takes a certain time to manifest? (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 23, 09:56:09
      - Seems the Oxford one is using existing tech (General Chat) - jamesward, Nov 23, 09:58:00
        
        This is certainly an aspect that I find reassuring (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 23, 10:44:18
      - I’m not a scientist, but I find it hard to imagine how it could really (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:57:01
  - Yes. But it's a risk balance isn't it.... (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Nov 23, 09:44:49
  - Are the risk of adverse side effects really that high with vaccines? (General Chat) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Nov 23, 09:33:36
    - You might turn dark blue (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 23, 09:37:45
      - Then the rest of me would match the colour of my balls. (General Chat) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Nov 23, 09:44:20
    - Because Bill Gates is behind it (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:35:57
      - you have undermined your own argument now by being childish (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:38:18
        
        People genuinely believe this (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:41:41
        
        that'll be the morons then (n/m) (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:44:41
        
        Indeed (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:49:58
        
        that happened here too. these people are probably all on facebook for hours a day (General Chat) - Worzel Scrimmage, Nov 23, 15:39:20
  - I 've said before that I'm not entirely unconcerned (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 23, 09:31:47
    - good luck get well soon (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:46:43
    - Unclean! Unclean!! (General Chat) - Old Git, Nov 23, 09:39:08
      - wipe down the keyboard, you'll be fine (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 23, 10:45:39
    - Get well soon paulg (n/m) (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:34:58
  - Hasn’t been hastily rushed through panic (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:26:14
    - You are truly amazing (General Chat) - Charles21, Nov 23, 14:09:44
  - What’s the alternative? (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:25:52
    - Spot on (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:29:53
      - That’s ridiculous (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:38:20
        
        Indeed (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:43:42
        
        VMT! (n/m) (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:48:49
    - mask up, wash your hands, avoid morons (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:27:42
      - So where do you live? (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 23, 18:30:48
      - For how long? Not going to make the virus go away is it? (n/m) (General Chat) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Nov 23, 09:38:55
        
        forever maybe? (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:41:06
        
        I guess not if you're settled down in a relationship and have no desire to form physical (General Chat) - Ken Dodds Dads Dog, Nov 23, 09:46:12
        
        Or ever go to a football match again (n/m) (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:53:55
        
        or the virus mutates up its own arse (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:48:20
        
        Isn’t that risk increased by people not having the vaccine? (n/m) (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:57:42
        
        I know you’re suggesting a mutation to make it milder (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:58:11
        
        Nobody knows thats the thing (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 10:01:04
      - Avoiding morons (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, Nov 23, 09:36:35
        
        (n/m) (General Chat) - Lentil Weaver, Nov 23, 10:21:18
        
        The world is made up of... (General Chat) - Jester, Nov 23, 09:37:28
        
        Lol (n/m) (General Chat) - ghostof barry butler, Nov 23, 09:40:34
      - That’s a solution on an individual level only, isn’t it? (n/m) (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:29:03
        
        it is a collective solution as well (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:30:56
        
        World can’t stop forever (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, Nov 23, 09:55:39
        
        Hard to see how the economy would survive, at least in the form that we knew it (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:33:52
        
        inject the city people first with vaccine then we can see how we can make an informed choi (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:36:07
        
        I think anyone not wanting the vaccine should continue to do as you say... (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:40:33
        
        If you are happy to take the vaccine then you must be convinced it will be om (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:59:05
        
        I don’t think that is right (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 10:04:59
        
        Yes I’d just been thinking about that (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 10:26:58
        
        Fair enough (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 10:23:33
        
        Haha! I tell you what.... (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 10:27:48
        
        but you can't say "who" you are, and everyone has to guess (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 23, 10:56:21
        
        Haha! That sounds good! (n/m) (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 11:32:41
        
        and if EssexC comes, bags I get first guess (n/m) (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 23, 11:49:42
        
        That wouldn't be hard tbf,just look for the person surrounded by dozens (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Nov 23, 11:54:02
        
        Lol 😂 (n/m) (General Chat) - JoeyDeacon, Nov 23, 14:17:14
        
        OK (n/m) (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 10:02:19
        
        Om sounded more philosophical (n/m) (General Chat) - jamesward, Nov 23, 10:02:42
        
        I want my blue vaccine passport (General Chat) - jamesward, Nov 23, 10:02:17
        
        Aren’t the vaccine manufacturers (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:38:53
        
        Tool up for the zombie apocalypse?? (n/m) (General Chat) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Nov 23, 09:37:12
        
        #ready (n/m) (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:39:24
        
        It’s a collective mitigation (General Chat) - SCC 28, Nov 23, 09:32:00
        
        oh well, nevermind. it is what it is (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 23, 09:34:27
- Up to 90% if half dose followed by full (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 23, 09:16:49
  - No, we dont (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 23, 09:48:43
  - I’m not an epidemiologist by any stretch (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:21:33
    - If the 'not very vulnerable ' (General Chat) - paulg, Nov 23, 09:41:10
      - Absolutely, that’s step 1 (General Chat) - SimonOTBC, Nov 23, 09:44:57

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