do you think there will still be deadlock?

Boris is a t**t but he is a pragmatic, self-interested t**t.

He knows that at a GE, the Tories get killed. He will lessen the impact of the Brexit Party but they will take enough hard brexit votes for the Tories to lose a few marginals to Remain parties.

He knows that a GE risks either a further minority Tory Govt, or a Lab led coaltion or minority Lab Govt.

He knows that if they get a deal though, BRexit is off the table as a voter issue and he kills a Corbyn led Labour party.

The blocker to May's deal was an ERG and BoJo led opposition to the backstop. BoJo's opposition was based, primarily, on an assessment that it would topple May and give him a shot at leadership.

Now he has his grasp on the leadership, does he (or the ERG) really care that much about the backstop?

I think we get some fudge of a compromise on the backstop agreed with the EU that is just enough to let BoJo obfuscate his way out of his opposition to the Deal without fundamentally changing May's.

BoJo saves face, the EU saves face, Brexit is delivered, and The Tories cling onto power.

I can't see any other scenario guaranteeing BoJo a good run at being PM which is why I don't think any other scenario is realistic.

Posted By: CWC on June 13th 2019 at 13:48:20

Message Thread

So The Twat wins the first round in the leadership ballot. (n/m) (General Chat) - MORDENCANARY, Jun 13, 13:11:03
- Slightly saddened Grayling didn't run. If we are to have a disaster, go for the titanic. (n/m) (General Chat) - DrDublin, Jun 13, 13:58:50
- A dishonest, racist thug. (General Chat) - avenging canary, Jun 13, 13:54:30
- Bad result for The Saj, BoJo-Hunt runoff (obvs) looks most likely (General Chat) - Old Man, Jun 13, 13:21:30
  - Hunt will trade with Boris I suspect (General Chat) - Old Git, Jun 13, 13:27:15
- The ultimate humiliation for the Country is on course then. (n/m) (General Chat) - DrDublin, Jun 13, 13:19:17
- I think Boris effectively became PM today (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Jun 13, 13:17:43
  - Very unlikely to go to the members (General Chat) - Old Git, Jun 13, 13:22:19
    - Only thing is (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, Jun 13, 13:55:49
    - everyone lolz (General Chat) - Tombs, Jun 13, 13:36:17
    - I've wondered about that (General Chat) - Old Man, Jun 13, 13:28:57
      - Yes (General Chat) - Old Git, Jun 13, 13:35:15
        
        and they're right too (General Chat) - paulg, Jun 13, 13:49:18
        
        do you think there will still be deadlock? (General Chat) - CWC, Jun 13, 13:48:20
        
        Seem's plausible (n/m) (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 13:52:07
        
        It's not just Corbyn: that cheeky scamp Farage might cause them the odd issue (General Chat) - Old Man, Jun 13, 13:43:57
        
        Irony is this entire shitfest was conceived by the threat of UKIP to the Cons and (General Chat) - Pixelman, Jun 13, 13:47:53
        
        Where's Cameron these day I wonder? (n/m) (General Chat) - DrDublin, Jun 13, 14:44:37
        
        Earning a mint doing speeches. Much the same as blair (n/m) (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 14:49:23
    - I'll drop out and back you if you make me home secretary? (n/m) (General Chat) - Timmy_Goat, Jun 13, 13:24:01
      - Email me your CV and £50k and I’ll think it over (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Git, Jun 13, 13:28:03
  - At least he's got more of a personality then any of the other candidates (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 13:20:27
    - At no point has Stewart said he was polling better than Johnson. (General Chat) - norway, Jun 13, 13:39:34
      - Link me to where i said i was a Boris fan. (n/m) (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 13:44:16
        
        "At least he's got more of a personality then any of the other candidates" (n/m) (General Chat) - norway, Jun 13, 14:35:32
        
        Well that's true. Where did i say i was a fan though? (n/m) (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 14:48:13
        
        Saying he literally has the best personality of all the contenders suggests you're a fan. (n/m) (General Chat) - norway, Jun 13, 14:55:33
        
        It suggest's fuck all. (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 15:08:55
        
        Sigh (General Chat) - norway, Jun 13, 16:11:42
        
        But I thought you were a fascist (General Chat) - paulg, Jun 13, 18:08:06
        
        It's like Merka - if you aren't a right wing loony, you're a commie (n/m) (General Chat) - CB41, Jun 13, 16:32:32
        
        Identity Politics. By the left for the right. (n/m) (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 17:48:45
        
        To be run over by a bus? Tricky one that, but prob Johnson (n/m) (General Chat) - CB41, Jun 13, 15:34:50
      - Apologies, was on radio and wasn't clear... See below (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 13:43:26
    - Yes let's forget about all the misinformation and problems he has cau (General Chat) - Maillot Jaune, Jun 13, 13:33:07
      - Oh am I? Thanks for letting me know. (n/m) (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 13:47:16
      - More to the point, he'll back the biggest lunatic. (n/m) (General Chat) - norway, Jun 13, 13:40:25
        
        That's not true at all. I've never supported Corbyn (n/m) (General Chat) - Basingstoke_Canary_J, Jun 13, 13:47:54

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