do you think there will still be deadlock?

Boris is a t**t but he is a pragmatic, self-interested t**t.

He knows that at a GE, the Tories get killed. He will lessen the impact of the Brexit Party but they will take enough hard brexit votes for the Tories to lose a few marginals to Remain parties.

He knows that a GE risks either a further minority Tory Govt, or a Lab led coaltion or minority Lab Govt.

He knows that if they get a deal though, BRexit is off the table as a voter issue and he kills a Corbyn led Labour party.

The blocker to May's deal was an ERG and BoJo led opposition to the backstop. BoJo's opposition was based, primarily, on an assessment that it would topple May and give him a shot at leadership.

Now he has his grasp on the leadership, does he (or the ERG) really care that much about the backstop?

I think we get some fudge of a compromise on the backstop agreed with the EU that is just enough to let BoJo obfuscate his way out of his opposition to the Deal without fundamentally changing May's.

BoJo saves face, the EU saves face, Brexit is delivered, and The Tories cling onto power.

I can't see any other scenario guaranteeing BoJo a good run at being PM which is why I don't think any other scenario is realistic.

Posted By: CWC on June 13th 2019 at 13:48:20

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