...erm...nope...

...you are not parsing what I wrote correctly.

Let's try again. I said: You are wrong if you don't switch with 2/3 probability

-- in other words you have 2/3 chance of being wrong, i.e. not winning the car, if you don't switch

I then said: ... and right with 1/3 probability.

-- in other words you have 1/3 chance of being right i.e. winning the car if you don't switch.

I think said: So you're twice as likely to win the car if you switch.

-- so the optimal strategy is to switch because you have twice the chance of winning if you do.

I never asserted any 100% strategy, because there isn't one. I said switching made it twice as likely you would win the car, which it does.

Hope this helps.

Posted By: Old Man on November 2nd 2016 at 19:56:57

Message Thread

The monty Hall problem.... dont look up the answer..... just answer here. (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 15:20:14
- My degree's in maths so I don't need to google the answer (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:14:38
  - how does it make any difference? (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:25:14
    - The game show host will only show you a goat. (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 2, 18:04:06
      - OK, got it, thanks! (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 18:51:17
    - Your decision after the reveal is to switch or not (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:27:06
      - I am googling this like a mad man and I still don't get it (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:53:33
        
        Take it in stages (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:57:11
        
        how does switching make a difference? (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 17:51:25
        
        See my post above. (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 2, 18:05:14
        
        The odds of the door you choose being right are 1/3 (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:56:05
        
        the reveal does make a difference though (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 17:30:22
        
        Not true - the odds don't change (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:31:36
        
        the original odds (when not knowing 3 was a goat) don't change (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 17:43:34
        
        The best way to understand it is just to try it out a few times (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:57:29
      - thats an incorrect statement. (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 16:38:30
        
        Nope (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:52:56
        
        I guess you didnt read what I wrote....... (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 19:28:37
        
        ...erm...nope... (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 19:56:57
- yes as game show producers less likely to put two goats next to each other (n/m) (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:05:22
- makes no difference, does it? (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 15:56:10
- I read about this in Jim Al-Khalili's book... (General Chat) - bird table, Nov 2, 15:41:15
- Higher odds of finding a car if you switch (General Chat) - phelans tash, Nov 2, 15:34:51
  - Better odds, I mean (n/m) (General Chat) - phelans tash, Nov 2, 18:52:50
- Nope, I'd rather have a goat (n/m) (General Chat) - CB41, Nov 2, 15:23:11
  - Me too. (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:39:47
    - what was it named? (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:40:10
      - Maradona. (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:43:06
        
        Federer (n/m) (General Chat) - APB, Nov 2, 15:48:20
        
        Rod Laver. (n/m) (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:54:04
        
        Sounds like something my Garry... (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 16:04:48
  - i definitely would prefer the goat over the car (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:27:24
    - Ole '6 cars Tombs' (n/m) (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:48:40
      - to be fair (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:55:00
    - I'd have my goat eat his fucking car, till that shitwagon looked like a SFII bonus stage (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:36:32
  - Good afternoon fellow Goat Appreciater (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:24:49
- depends if you like goats 🐎 (n/m) (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:23:03
- Yes. (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:22:50
  - The odds are not 50/50 with the two doors left! (n/m) (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 15:23:49
    - WHO GIVES A FUCK. WE WANT THE GOATZ, YA DOUCHE (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:37:13
    - Not what I meant (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:30:38
- I'd genuienly pick a goat over a car. They are hilarious creatures. (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:22:44

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