the reveal does make a difference though

my odds are no longer 1/3 they are 1/2. It deosn't matter what the odds were when there were three possibilities, there are now only two so the odds change.

If you secretly asked someone else to make the same choice at the same time as me, and they just happened to pick option 2 your argument would mean you would have to tell me that option 2 was twice as likely and them that option 1 was twice as likely to be correct. That can't be true, we both have the same chance.

Posted By: mr carra on November 2nd 2016 at 17:30:22

Message Thread

The monty Hall problem.... dont look up the answer..... just answer here. (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 15:20:14
- My degree's in maths so I don't need to google the answer (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:14:38
  - how does it make any difference? (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:25:14
    - The game show host will only show you a goat. (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 2, 18:04:06
      - OK, got it, thanks! (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 18:51:17
    - Your decision after the reveal is to switch or not (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:27:06
      - I am googling this like a mad man and I still don't get it (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:53:33
        
        Take it in stages (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:57:11
        
        how does switching make a difference? (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 17:51:25
        
        See my post above. (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 2, 18:05:14
        
        The odds of the door you choose being right are 1/3 (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:56:05
        
        the reveal does make a difference though (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 17:30:22
        
        Not true - the odds don't change (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:31:36
        
        the original odds (when not knowing 3 was a goat) don't change (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 17:43:34
        
        The best way to understand it is just to try it out a few times (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:57:29
      - thats an incorrect statement. (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 16:38:30
        
        Nope (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:52:56
        
        I guess you didnt read what I wrote....... (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 19:28:37
        
        ...erm...nope... (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 19:56:57
- yes as game show producers less likely to put two goats next to each other (n/m) (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:05:22
- makes no difference, does it? (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 15:56:10
- I read about this in Jim Al-Khalili's book... (General Chat) - bird table, Nov 2, 15:41:15
- Higher odds of finding a car if you switch (General Chat) - phelans tash, Nov 2, 15:34:51
  - Better odds, I mean (n/m) (General Chat) - phelans tash, Nov 2, 18:52:50
- Nope, I'd rather have a goat (n/m) (General Chat) - CB41, Nov 2, 15:23:11
  - Me too. (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:39:47
    - what was it named? (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:40:10
      - Maradona. (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:43:06
        
        Federer (n/m) (General Chat) - APB, Nov 2, 15:48:20
        
        Rod Laver. (n/m) (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:54:04
        
        Sounds like something my Garry... (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 16:04:48
  - i definitely would prefer the goat over the car (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:27:24
    - Ole '6 cars Tombs' (n/m) (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:48:40
      - to be fair (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:55:00
    - I'd have my goat eat his fucking car, till that shitwagon looked like a SFII bonus stage (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:36:32
  - Good afternoon fellow Goat Appreciater (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:24:49
- depends if you like goats 🐎 (n/m) (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:23:03
- Yes. (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:22:50
  - The odds are not 50/50 with the two doors left! (n/m) (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 15:23:49
    - WHO GIVES A FUCK. WE WANT THE GOATZ, YA DOUCHE (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:37:13
    - Not what I meant (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:30:38
- I'd genuienly pick a goat over a car. They are hilarious creatures. (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:22:44

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