how does it make any difference?

The (new) decision now is do you choose Door 1 or Door 2? (Knowing that Door 3 is a Goat, so that falls out of the equation).

You now have a choice of two doors and you know the car is definitely behind one of those two doors. So you've got a 50:50 chance of picking the right door, whether you stick with Door 1 or switch to Door 2, no?

It then comes down to gaming whether you think the location of the revealed goat has any bearing on the location of the car, and whether asking if you want to change your mind and pick door 2 (instead of asking if you are ghappy to stay with door 1), is a deliberate attempt to sow doubt in your mind because they know you've actually selected the correct door.

Posted By: CWC on November 2nd 2016 at 16:25:14

Message Thread

The monty Hall problem.... dont look up the answer..... just answer here. (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 15:20:14
- My degree's in maths so I don't need to google the answer (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:14:38
  - how does it make any difference? (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:25:14
    - The game show host will only show you a goat. (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 2, 18:04:06
      - OK, got it, thanks! (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 18:51:17
    - Your decision after the reveal is to switch or not (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:27:06
      - I am googling this like a mad man and I still don't get it (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:53:33
        
        Take it in stages (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:57:11
        
        how does switching make a difference? (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 17:51:25
        
        See my post above. (n/m) (General Chat) - Tony Martin, Nov 2, 18:05:14
        
        The odds of the door you choose being right are 1/3 (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:56:05
        
        the reveal does make a difference though (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 17:30:22
        
        Not true - the odds don't change (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:31:36
        
        the original odds (when not knowing 3 was a goat) don't change (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 17:43:34
        
        The best way to understand it is just to try it out a few times (n/m) (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 17:57:29
      - thats an incorrect statement. (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 16:38:30
        
        Nope (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 16:52:56
        
        I guess you didnt read what I wrote....... (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 19:28:37
        
        ...erm...nope... (General Chat) - Old Man, Nov 2, 19:56:57
- yes as game show producers less likely to put two goats next to each other (n/m) (General Chat) - CWC, Nov 2, 16:05:22
- makes no difference, does it? (General Chat) - mr carra, Nov 2, 15:56:10
- I read about this in Jim Al-Khalili's book... (General Chat) - bird table, Nov 2, 15:41:15
- Higher odds of finding a car if you switch (General Chat) - phelans tash, Nov 2, 15:34:51
  - Better odds, I mean (n/m) (General Chat) - phelans tash, Nov 2, 18:52:50
- Nope, I'd rather have a goat (n/m) (General Chat) - CB41, Nov 2, 15:23:11
  - Me too. (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:39:47
    - what was it named? (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:40:10
      - Maradona. (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:43:06
        
        Federer (n/m) (General Chat) - APB, Nov 2, 15:48:20
        
        Rod Laver. (n/m) (General Chat) - Garry Brooke, Nov 2, 15:54:04
        
        Sounds like something my Garry... (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 16:04:48
  - i definitely would prefer the goat over the car (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:27:24
    - Ole '6 cars Tombs' (n/m) (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:48:40
      - to be fair (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:55:00
    - I'd have my goat eat his fucking car, till that shitwagon looked like a SFII bonus stage (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:36:32
  - Good afternoon fellow Goat Appreciater (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:24:49
- depends if you like goats 🐎 (n/m) (General Chat) - Tombs, Nov 2, 15:23:03
- Yes. (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:22:50
  - The odds are not 50/50 with the two doors left! (n/m) (General Chat) - usacanary, Nov 2, 15:23:49
    - WHO GIVES A FUCK. WE WANT THE GOATZ, YA DOUCHE (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:37:13
    - Not what I meant (General Chat) - CauldRon, Nov 2, 15:30:38
- I'd genuienly pick a goat over a car. They are hilarious creatures. (n/m) (General Chat) - MIKEWALKER, Nov 2, 15:22:44

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