Finally, a simulation based stochastic model to help predict the future

Will be interesting to read up on the model assumptions later when I get time :)

Posted By: essexcanaryOTBC on March 21st 2016 at 21:56:30

Message Thread

% chances of loads of stuff wow what a site (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 17:43:32
- So there's a 29-52% chance of us getting 8-10 points then according to their (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 18:23:05
- Finally, a simulation based stochastic model to help predict the future (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 21:56:30
  - 48% chance of relegation vs betting market 53% (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 22:14:02
  - And the confidence levels/sensitivity testing of parameter estimates (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 22:00:07
- Doesnt take into account opponents. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 21, 20:57:52
  - Er yes it does - read how they are calculated (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 21:21:30
    - ... (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 21, 21:26:52
      - He doesn't usually reply when proved wrong (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 21:34:53
- That's roughly 4 wins for toon and sunnerland then to beat us. (NCFC) - Tony Martin, Mar 21, 18:04:29
  - Mainly down to our games against them (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:07:35
    - If we beat both Newcastle and Sunderland, I did think we wouldn't need much at all (NCFC) - norway, Mar 21, 18:19:12
      - ...I *love* this, by the way. Right up my strasse. (n/m) (NCFC) - norway, Mar 21, 18:28:39
        
        Bends my head up a little bit. Glad there's people that will translate it (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 21, 18:41:17
        
        Not for me. It's just maths as far as I'm concerned! (n/m) (NCFC) - Bravo win or die, Mar 21, 18:37:48
        
        Stochastic random processes. The assumptions are key though (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 21:57:48
        
        Great find from brandonio (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:31:53
- Rafa and big Sam said they need 4 wins!! (n/m) (NCFC) - hoolahan, Mar 21, 18:01:59
  - Yep might well do (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:04:31

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