He doesn't usually reply when proved wrong
How are these numbers calculated?
Sports Club Stats calculates each team?s odds of winning the title, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each time the league owner sends in new scores it simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.
Posted By: SCC 28 on March 21st 2016 at 21:34:53
Message Thread
- % chances of loads of stuff wow what a site (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 17:43:32
- So there's a 29-52% chance of us getting 8-10 points then according to their (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 18:23:05
- Finally, a simulation based stochastic model to help predict the future (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 21:56:30
- 48% chance of relegation vs betting market 53% (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 22:14:02
- And the confidence levels/sensitivity testing of parameter estimates (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 22:00:07
- Doesnt take into account opponents. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 21, 20:57:52
- Er yes it does - read how they are calculated (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 21:21:30
- That's roughly 4 wins for toon and sunnerland then to beat us. (NCFC) - Tony Martin, Mar 21, 18:04:29
- Mainly down to our games against them (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:07:35
- If we beat both Newcastle and Sunderland, I did think we wouldn't need much at all (NCFC) - norway, Mar 21, 18:19:12
- ...I *love* this, by the way. Right up my strasse. (n/m) (NCFC) - norway, Mar 21, 18:28:39
- Bends my head up a little bit. Glad there's people that will translate it (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 21, 18:41:17
- Not for me. It's just maths as far as I'm concerned! (n/m) (NCFC) - Bravo win or die, Mar 21, 18:37:48
- Stochastic random processes. The assumptions are key though (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 21:57:48
- Great find from brandonio (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:31:53
- ...I *love* this, by the way. Right up my strasse. (n/m) (NCFC) - norway, Mar 21, 18:28:39
- If we beat both Newcastle and Sunderland, I did think we wouldn't need much at all (NCFC) - norway, Mar 21, 18:19:12
- Mainly down to our games against them (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:07:35
- Rafa and big Sam said they need 4 wins!! (n/m) (NCFC) - hoolahan, Mar 21, 18:01:59
- Yep might well do (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:04:31
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