Doesnt take into account opponents.

say we go 3-0-4

If the three wins are versus CP, Sun and Newcastle we almost certainly stay up......

If we go 3-0-4 and none of the three wins are vs CP, Sun and Newcastle then it should be obvious our chances of staying up are much less when you consider both opponents points and GD against us.

Those charts are basically a glorified table of tilt.
Taking the average PPG of the season so far and extrapolating out to the 50% percentile point and doing a normal distribution around that point.

Also....

Does it calculate for injuries/suspensions.......NO
Does it calculate for Strength/venue of opposition (Arse away vs Villa at home)........NO

Highly flawed in many other ways too........

The only way to estimate the true points total is to estimate the % of W/L/D in every individual game and get an average PPG if that game were played a million times.
A rough number off the top of my head would be something like 1.6 vs SUN at home and 0.4 vs Arsenal away.

Posted By: usacanary on March 21st 2016 at 20:57:52

Message Thread

% chances of loads of stuff wow what a site (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 17:43:32
- So there's a 29-52% chance of us getting 8-10 points then according to their (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 18:23:05
- Finally, a simulation based stochastic model to help predict the future (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 21:56:30
  - 48% chance of relegation vs betting market 53% (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 22:14:02
  - And the confidence levels/sensitivity testing of parameter estimates (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 22:00:07
- Doesnt take into account opponents. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 21, 20:57:52
  - Er yes it does - read how they are calculated (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 21:21:30
    - ... (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 21, 21:26:52
      - He doesn't usually reply when proved wrong (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 21:34:53
- That's roughly 4 wins for toon and sunnerland then to beat us. (NCFC) - Tony Martin, Mar 21, 18:04:29
  - Mainly down to our games against them (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:07:35
    - If we beat both Newcastle and Sunderland, I did think we wouldn't need much at all (NCFC) - norway, Mar 21, 18:19:12
      - ...I *love* this, by the way. Right up my strasse. (n/m) (NCFC) - norway, Mar 21, 18:28:39
        
        Bends my head up a little bit. Glad there's people that will translate it (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Mar 21, 18:41:17
        
        Not for me. It's just maths as far as I'm concerned! (n/m) (NCFC) - Bravo win or die, Mar 21, 18:37:48
        
        Stochastic random processes. The assumptions are key though (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 21, 21:57:48
        
        Great find from brandonio (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:31:53
- Rafa and big Sam said they need 4 wins!! (n/m) (NCFC) - hoolahan, Mar 21, 18:01:59
  - Yep might well do (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 21, 18:04:31

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