In essence....

Yes.

Someone did an academic study which showed the net effect of changing manager was.......zero. Most of the change could be be accounted for by reversion of the mean.

Posted By: Johnny Comecardiff on November 5th 2013 at 16:24:06

Message Thread

Ken Brown (NCFC) - norway, Nov 5, 16:08:05
- when we were 19th with 11 points from 14 games (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:12:31
  - Reversion to mean? (n/m) (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:21:00
    - Yes, assume that works positively as well as negatively... (n/m) (NCFC) - duke of york, Nov 5, 16:21:35
      - In essence.... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:24:06
        
        every case is different (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:25:30
        
        Apart from it being a peer reviewed and statistically sound study...... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:27:49
        
        define a dip in form? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:29:15
        
        Read it for yourself (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:33:49
        
        and wtf is our normal long term position in the league? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:35:07
        
        To the nearest round number, our average position in the last 20 years (NCFC) - norway, Nov 5, 16:43:36
        
        well if we keep hughton (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:44:33
        
        can't open it but pretty sure it's all bollocks anyway (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:36:27
        
        Marvellous..... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:40:11
        
        ok we shouldn't have sacked worthington, grant, roeder or gunn (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:42:00
        
        Marvellous..... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:43:16
        
        thought you might (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:44:59
        
        Arf..... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:47:55
        
        Interesting stuff. Of course big differences between the 'average' outcome and individual (NCFC) - Tricky Hawes, Nov 5, 16:58:37
        
        Absolutely. (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 17:35:37
        
        and does this by showing the short term effect of a managerial change... (NCFC) - phrankin, Nov 5, 19:11:33
        
        Still think there will have been some successes and some failures (NCFC) - duke of york, Nov 5, 16:56:05
        
        Not at all. (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 19:01:41
        
        well i'm sure we can (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 19:08:00
        
        I'll tell you what... if we are in the drop zone with 4 games to go (NCFC) - phrankin, Nov 5, 19:10:46
        
        yes there are 10 or so teams who are always in the prem (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 16:53:39
        
        And as current examples of why changing your manager is a bad idea..... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:49:02
        
        sunderland stayed up (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:00:02
        
        Thats the basis of the analysis right there.... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 18:20:12
        
        ??? (n/m) (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 18:52:53
        
        it's a very poor study (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 18:53:43
        
        that's fairly damning then thanks! (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 18:26:17
        
        bit too soon to judge sunderland (NCFC) - earlydoors, Nov 5, 16:53:03
        
        I was more referring to Di Canio (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 16:55:27
        
        and they'd have reverted to the mean under MON? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:01:37
        
        Depends on your timeframe. (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Nov 5, 18:57:05
        
        yeah but they got the lift needed to stay up (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 19:00:39
        
        looks like JCC thought your opinion was just a noise (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Nov 5, 18:21:16
        
        but hopefully not a stalker... (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 18:27:41
        
        still waiting to find out what I'm supposedly "deluded" about (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Nov 5, 18:42:30
        
        can't say i even remember (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 18:44:59
        
        make your baseless accusations then claim ignorance. Charming (NCFC) - Worzel Scrimmage, Nov 5, 18:48:29
        
        Too many human and tactical variables (NCFC) - duke of york, Nov 5, 16:26:25
- We've all got Twitter pal (n/m) (NCFC) - duke of york, Nov 5, 16:09:16
  - I haven't (n/m) (NCFC) - Old Git, Nov 5, 16:22:50
    - neither do i (n/m) (NCFC) - Tombs, Nov 5, 17:05:10
  - I like to present my amazing facts on more than one forum. (NCFC) - norway, Nov 5, 16:10:41
    - I enjoyed it (NCFC) - Old Git, Nov 5, 16:23:07
      - You're very welcome and thank you (NCFC) - norway, Nov 5, 16:29:49
        
        it's a rubbish fact i'm afraid (NCFC) - Tombs, Nov 5, 17:07:18

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