Mikey Im trying to help you.

Take it from someone involved with that world.

I could just call you the C word and move on but actually took the time to explain what you are missing.

I have talked about betting syndicates many times and even posted links to their job openings for analysts (who are paid to watch games and analyze details that are important)
This is just part of the picture. The data is fed into complex models that make adjustments to come up with probability of W/L/D if the game was played 1 million+ times, pseudo Monte Carlo simulation.

Posted By: usacanary on January 15th 2026 at 16:34:30

Message Thread

xG the main BBC sports story 😍 (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 11:17:56
- "What does xG predict for the rest of the season?" (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:36:25
- what do the colour codes signify? (Other Football) - Tombs, Jan 15, 11:42:48
  - Red means you are going to get Regulated. (n/m) (Other Football) - Milko, Jan 15, 13:21:50
- Blimey, Sunderland massively over-performing (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Jan 15, 11:20:29
  - Wow worse than wolves in xG terms (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 11:23:49
    - Turns out you had an xT of 100% (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Jan 15, 16:40:15
      - 👌 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 17:18:56
    - I suspect that a historical look at xG (Other Football) - Henclrikus, Jan 15, 13:02:34
      - The 91/92 side was a lot better than the league position (Other Football) - APB, Jan 15, 13:26:11
      - Defo the former (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 13:09:29
        
        It was common sense in those days. Hot Takes weren't what got everyone (Other Football) - Henclrikus, Jan 15, 13:42:10
        
        I agree loosely with this (Other Football) - APB, Jan 15, 13:54:43
        
        Simple question......what has a higher correlation to actual League position GD or xG (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 14:46:58
        
        A question in return: (Other Football) - APB, Jan 15, 15:34:51
        
        Good question. I think I have answered this multiple times but.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:00:36
        
        Claiming xG and similar metrics are “too subjective” misses the point. (Other Football) - The Gaffer, Jan 15, 16:17:31
        
        So is GD..... and its 100% accurate and not subjective in any way. (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:25:54
        
        I give up. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt thatt you're being obtuse on purpose. (n/m) (Other Football) - The Gaffer, Jan 15, 20:41:10
        
        There’s a fundamental difference. xGD is about performance and how repeatable it is, while (Other Football) - The Gaffer, Jan 15, 15:28:43
        
        YET....line up the PL table currently in GD and xG..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 15:42:14
        
        I’m not defending the article as relying on a single metric to draw conclusions is just (Other Football) - The Gaffer, Jan 15, 16:06:51
        
        "doesn’t change that these metrics aren’t about predicting the future" (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:14:02
        
        What bit of 'I'm not defending the article' did you not understand. (n/m) (Other Football) - The Gaffer, Jan 15, 16:16:02
        
        I know it was a subtle point but I had to keep it simple..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:24:40
        
        Funny you should mention betting (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 16:00:07
        
        The part you totally dont understand is..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:07:49
        
        So you accept that it’s useful hurrah 🥳 (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 16:09:40
        
        You are a genius.... now get back to dipping the fries.... (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:11:49
        
        Smiley faces actually (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 16:20:53
        
        Mikey Im trying to help you. (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:34:30
        
        Goal difference is what has happened, xG is what could have happened (Other Football) - APB, Jan 15, 15:49:34
        
        I was using it as an example. (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 16:09:53
        
        Never knew the human brain could come up with so much shite (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 17:43:19
        
        You’re wasting your breath… (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Jan 15, 15:38:56
        
        🎯 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 15:40:33
        
        I hope you’re on the wind up 😆 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 15:01:22
        
        GD is a better predictor of actual LG position than xG. (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 15:17:08
        
        😂😂😂🙈🙈🙈 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 15:18:34
        
        Oh wow just scrolled down the board 😆 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 15:19:54
        
        Suprised you didnt join in the wank fest.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 15:26:43
        
        I quite like watching (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 15:33:43
        
        Makes sense......Watching the King swat away the flies. (Other Football) - usacanary, Jan 15, 15:43:11
        
        Yep called it (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 13:10:36
    - OK, so does that mean they have more clinical finishers or are lucky? (n/m) (Other Football) - finkleton, Jan 15, 12:09:24
      - More clinical will defo play a part (Other Football) - SCC 28, Jan 15, 12:12:02

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