Too much weight on the odds there for me

I asked ChatGPT for a prediction based entirely on current form, ignoring bookies' odds:

Norwich City 1 - 2 Hull City
• Hull to win, given the momentum and Norwich’s slump.
• Both teams to score, as Norwich’s defence is shaky and Hull have shown scoring capability.
• A two-goal margin seems plausible given Hull’s form and Norwich’s struggles.

Posted By: jamesward on October 31st 2025 at 10:19:56

Message Thread

3 very losable games this week , how many points do you think we’ll get? (NCFC) - strap_on sally, Oct 31, 09:38:23
- I'm going to Hillsborough and i have strong hopes we might sneak a 0-0 (n/m) (NCFC) - jAC, Oct 31, 10:18:05
- We're shit, losing run continues (n/m) (NCFC) - 51eve, Oct 31, 09:51:02
- Law of averages ,City will fluke a win at some point. (NCFC) - MORDENCANARY, Oct 31, 09:50:32
  - I agree, at some point we must sneak a win (NCFC) - strap_on sally, Oct 31, 09:54:37
- Players able to hear the protests outside the ground before KO, will that help? (n/m) (NCFC) - BSE Canary, Oct 31, 09:47:58
- 9 (n/m) (NCFC) - MORDENCANARY, Oct 31, 09:45:11
- Somehow we're favourites to win tomorrow, and you can get 5/2 on Hull (NCFC) - jamesward, Oct 31, 09:43:26
  - I asked copilot to simulate the match yesterday, and it had us as slight favourites (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 31, 09:49:18
    - Copilot's view: (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 31, 10:14:11
      - Too much weight on the odds there for me (NCFC) - jamesward, Oct 31, 10:19:56
        
        I asked for it to give me a poisson model for the match (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 31, 10:21:08
        
        TLDR: It thinks 1-1 most likely, followed by 1-2 and 0-1 (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 31, 10:21:44
- fuckoffsoselwyns - we will shit them. 9 points to the nodge (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Oct 31, 09:40:11
- Could well be 0 (NCFC) - APB, Oct 31, 09:39:57

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