Copilot's view:

Here’s a clear, numbers-first probability breakdown for Norwich City vs Hull City this weekend.

1) Market‑implied (odds-based) probabilities
I pulled prices from two public sources and converted them to “fair” probabilities by removing the bookmaker margin (overround). The steps:

Convert decimal odds to raw implied probability with p=1/oddsp=1/text{odds}p=1/odds.
Sum the three outcomes to get the overround (usually >1 due to margin).
Normalize each probability by dividing by the overround so the three add to 100%.

Sources & odds used

Bet365 line via Squawka: Norwich 2.10, Draw 3.80, Hull 3.25. [squawka.com]
CapperTek snapshot: Norwich +110 (≈2.10), Draw +269 (≈3.69), Hull +227 (≈3.27). [cappertek.com]

Resulting “fair” (normalized) probabilities

From Squawka odds → Norwich 45.5% | Draw 25.1% | Hull 29.4% (overround ≈ 4.7%). [squawka.com]
From CapperTek odds → Norwich 45.2% | Draw 25.7% | Hull 29.1% (overround ≈ 5.3%). [cappertek.com]

Consensus (average of the two):
Norwich ~45% | Draw ~25% | Hull ~29%

Interpretation: The market ever‑so‑slightly favors Norwich at home, with Hull in the high‑20s to win outright.

2) What form & context suggest (qualitative tilt)
While the market leans Norwich (likely due to home advantage and historical H2H at Carrow Road), recent form/injuries tilt sentiment a bit toward Hull:

Form: Hull are unbeaten in five and sit 8th; Norwich are winless in eight and in the bottom three. [squawka.com], [news.bet365.com]
Injuries: Hull have several absences (e.g., McBurnie, Millar, Matazo), but Norwich are also short in places; projected lineups still give Hull enough threat (e.g., Gelhardt in form). [uk.sports.yahoo.com], [sportsmole.co.uk]
Previews: Multiple previews tip a narrow Hull win (common prediction “1–2”). [sportskeeda.com], [sportsmole.co.uk]

If you nudge the market numbers slightly for current form (without overreacting), a reasonable “form‑adjusted” view would be:
Norwich ~42% | Draw ~27% | Hull ~31%
(That still respects home edge/history, but reflects Hull’s better trajectory and Norwich’s slide.)

3) Goals markets (extra context)

Both Teams to Score (Yes) often priced around 4/6 (1.67) → raw implied ≈ 60%. [squawka.com]
Over 2.5 Goals around -136 (1.735) → raw implied ≈ 57–58%. [cappertek.com]

That lines up with the data: nine of Hull’s last ten league games have seen goals at both ends; Norwich concede regularly. [sportskeeda.com]

Quick take

Pure odds view: Norwich ~45%, Draw ~25%, Hull ~29%.
Form‑adjusted lean: Norwich ~42%, Draw ~27%, Hull ~31%.

Both perspectives say this is tight. Markets still give Norwich the edge at Carrow Road, but analytic previews and recent form keep Hull live for the upset. [squawka.com], [sportskeeda.com], [sportsmole.co.uk]

Posted By: SimonOTBC on October 31st 2025 at 10:14:11

Message Thread

3 very losable games this week , how many points do you think we’ll get? (NCFC) - strap_on sally, Oct 31, 09:38:23
- I'm going to Hillsborough and i have strong hopes we might sneak a 0-0 (n/m) (NCFC) - jAC, Oct 31, 10:18:05
- We're shit, losing run continues (n/m) (NCFC) - 51eve, Oct 31, 09:51:02
- Law of averages ,City will fluke a win at some point. (NCFC) - MORDENCANARY, Oct 31, 09:50:32
  - I agree, at some point we must sneak a win (NCFC) - strap_on sally, Oct 31, 09:54:37
- Players able to hear the protests outside the ground before KO, will that help? (n/m) (NCFC) - BSE Canary, Oct 31, 09:47:58
- 9 (n/m) (NCFC) - MORDENCANARY, Oct 31, 09:45:11
- Somehow we're favourites to win tomorrow, and you can get 5/2 on Hull (NCFC) - jamesward, Oct 31, 09:43:26
  - I asked copilot to simulate the match yesterday, and it had us as slight favourites (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 31, 09:49:18
    - Copilot's view: (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 31, 10:14:11
      - Too much weight on the odds there for me (NCFC) - jamesward, Oct 31, 10:19:56
        
        I asked for it to give me a poisson model for the match (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 31, 10:21:08
        
        TLDR: It thinks 1-1 most likely, followed by 1-2 and 0-1 (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Oct 31, 10:21:44
- fuckoffsoselwyns - we will shit them. 9 points to the nodge (n/m) (NCFC) - Jumbo1, Oct 31, 09:40:11
- Could well be 0 (NCFC) - APB, Oct 31, 09:39:57

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