Why I think we’re going down (the demise of NCFC in too many words)

Just some thoughts, as I’m between tasks. I just wanted the space to put them together. Read it if you want, don’t if you don’t.

TL;DR - it’s a complex matter and caused by many factors, which you know already.

Football has changed since 2007/8, last time we were here at this disappointing level. Huge though the gulf was between top and bottom in those days, and as massively moneyed as those top clubs were, it’s only got worse since then. Not only that, the flux of players between the Premier League and Football League has become much smaller as they prefer to keep their young players in house (to sell and get around FFP regs?), and the players themselves (and probably their agents) seem to see stepping into the FL as an admission of failure. They are more likely to move to another Premier League reserve team. Additionally, the ability to loan players whenever required, as mentioned elsewhere, is no more.

Poor decisions from the club leadership after Covid: since lockdown the club doesn’t seem able to get anything right. Every time they’ve changed coach it’s been by and large unsuccessful. Wagner was our best since then, by some way in my opinion, but was cursed by association with Webber and therefore doomed to be eternally unpopular. Thorup - too soon, not soon enough, not his own choice of coaching team? Smith? Then there was Webber himself, who seemed to be pretty untouchable and to do very little wrong pre-covid, misjudging things since then with his 90% quotes and Everest expeditions. More: Kensall phoning away supporters to apologise for the away points allocation mess; selling players (to Ipswich FFS), buying players - a lot of recruitment judgements have been pretty poor since 2020. It’s as if the club has had long Covid brain fog.

Poor leadership from some senior players. That’s what I see, anyway.

Brexit. Not wanting to open a whole sociological / political wormhole, but the tightening of the European player market, just as we were getting good at using it, hasn’t helped at all. No more Pukkis, Stiepermen, Emis etc. And it might just have affected the general mood of the crowd…

The supporters, also, I think, play a not insignificant part. Speaking as a 50-something Barclay lower season ticket holder for well over 30 years, I know that the crowd has changed. I, and many of the people around me, have been in our seats (or out of them) for many years. We’re not 25 any more. That energy is simply not the same. When I was in my early teens my parents wouldn’t allow me in the Barclay on my own or with friends so we went in the River end terrace, with the old guys. Today’s Barclay reminds me of there and then. I don’t mean any of this as a criticism, I’m now one of the old codgers myself, FFS. But the season ticket (lack of) availability over the last 20 years has meant that there has been little churn. This is why we need a bigger stadium, by about 3000 - 5000 in my opinion. The increase in seat availability and possible decrease in season tickets, I think would lead to a change in atmosphere, hopefully for the better. Of course there are risks that ST revenue will decline, but casual tickets cost more per match and a successful team would benefit. Yeah, I said successful. I’m aware of that. But it’s a cycle - the team boosts the crowd, which boosts the team, which etc.

To overcome all of these challenges we’re not going to just need to sack Manning, Knapper, or Zoe Webber, or all of them or a combination. We’re going to need to appoint replacements, quickly, who are almost immediately effective. Given everything I’ve said above, how likely is that? To avoid relegation, this team, as injury-ridden and lacking in confidence as it is, is going to have to increase its PPG ratio from 0.75 to 1.25. About 66% improvement, for the rest of the season, starting immediately. With the club consistently making poor decisions, no opportunity to strengthen the squad for a couple of months, and the mood in the crowd, I can’t see us not being in League One next season, and quite possibly for a while. Of course, things may change for the better, but in my opinion the likelihood of that is ever diminishing. I’m not saying heads shouldn’t roll, far from it. I just don’t think we should expect it to work.

(And that’s all without touching on Soccerbot, injuries (why so many?), funzones, #matchdayexperience, the club’s painful social media, and the metric f**ktonne of other bulls**t)

Posted By: APB on October 28th 2025 at 12:01:50

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