If the probability was correct it would match actual goals...

I love it when thicko's don't understand basic math.

If we flip a fair coin we know heads is a 50% probability. (0.50)

Flip enough samples and heads will be extremely close to 50%

Yet we have enough samples of predicted goals vs actual goals and they don't match.

Posted By: usacanary on September 1st 2023 at 13:53:27

Message Thread

NBTTT - XG (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Sep 1, 12:36:37
- I (n/m) (Other Football) - Boyer, Sep 1, 16:52:26
  - I (n/m) (Other Football) - Boyer, Sep 1, 17:00:48
- Interesting. (Other Football) - Cardiff Canary, Sep 1, 14:24:50
  - Amazed that more people don't get this simple point. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:37:43
    - Can you link me up to the data for, say, 5 years of (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 14:39:49
      - Are you guys having a fucking laugh.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:46:35
        
        You could save us the trouble, as you've obviously got all the data (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 14:48:59
        
        I published some data a while back.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:53:53
        
        Was it published in a peer-reviewed journal? (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 15:29:52
        
        Sorry that you are to lazy to do any research. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 15:58:58
        
        Nice deflection (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 16:42:55
        
        You did no research…. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 18:05:31
        
        Send over your datasets when you find them (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 18:41:21
    - Can you actually back that up? (Other Football) - SimonOTBC, Sep 1, 14:39:22
      - See above. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:47:42
- 42 (n/m) (Other Football) - Deep Thought, Sep 1, 13:46:35
- The problem is the zealot(s) who refuse to see the failings (Other Football) - Henclrikus, Sep 1, 13:31:13
  - The problem is those who think it’s ‘that deep’ (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:39:34
    - Penalties is a prime example... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:47:41
      - You’ve already been told it’s for all pens you mental DARVO cunt (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:54:16
        
        Again you have proven my point... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:58:12
        
        Are you saying that the xG for pens is wrong based on all pens taken? (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 13:59:55
        
        I agree with the point around subjectivity being a factor (Other Football) - SimonOTBC, Sep 1, 14:14:52
        
        Agreed but where xG fails... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:21:12
        
        But that is exactly what it is for (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Sep 1, 14:24:49
        
        Again.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:43:14
        
        But the probability doesn't match the reality... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:40:04
        
        I'm saying xG is a poor system..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:14:25
        
        Read and digest cunt (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:29:57
        
        Excellent magazine, worth a read (n/m) (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:44:52
        
        Potd (n/m) (Other Football) - Chris Peacock, Sep 1, 15:09:35
        
        It's dedicated to SCC... (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:55:16
        
        Lol (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:49:38
        
        😄😄😄 (n/m) (Other Football) - norwaay, Sep 1, 14:47:52
        
        But the probability doesn't match reality. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:40:59
      - And God forbid anyone "thinking deeply" (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:48:35
        
        ^^^^^not a deep thinker... (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:09:59
        
        You certainly aren’t (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:12:06
        
        How about DARVO cunts? (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:55:22
  - Finally, its clearly subjective meaning... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:34:01
- It's supposed to be a predictor of goals.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:28:14
  - It’s not a prediction (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:53:43
    - Ok it's a measure but.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:23:09
      - Subjective. That's the whole point. (n/m) (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:50:43
      - They don't match each and every individual case, no (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:48:54
        
        You clearly don't understand the subject. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 16:02:05
        
        Dude, it's not a problem (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 16:16:33
  - Either you are trolling or as someone once said... (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Sep 1, 13:40:18
    - If the probability was correct it would match actual goals... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:53:27
      - It's expected not predicted goals. (Other Football) - trafford_canary, Sep 1, 14:11:09
        
        👍👍👍 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:30:46
      - There are no samples of predicted goals you DARVO cunt (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:57:15
  - Maybe in your head lol (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:30:33
- Over the course of a season…. (Other Football) - SimonOTBC, Sep 1, 12:41:36
  - Somewhere on the east Norfolk coast (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 12:45:15
    - “Rousing himself” (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:08:17
- Yes, it’s about trends, not to be used to predict individual match results (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 12:39:08
  - How useful is something when you would need... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:45:48
    - I think you're falling into the trap of taking it too seriously (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 13:55:33
      - I fully understand it's a rough average of performance. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:08:01
        
        It would be mad to take into account player/team quality (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:10:59
        
        Yet bookies do this exact thing.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:18:33
        
        It’s nothing to do with fucking betting!!! (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:37:35
        
        Why do you keep talking about bookies? (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 14:22:06
        
        Exactly, thanks for proving my point. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:35:21
        
        It's a measure of performance, nothing more. (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:59:56
        
        Your reply could not be any more incorrect. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 18:14:24
        
        You're missing the point, perhaps deliberately at this stage (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 14:41:44
        
        At least this stops you abusing women I suppose (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:38:32
  - Not sure how any stat could anyway tbh (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 12:49:42
    - Huh, what utter bollocks..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:38:14
      - The event which happened! (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:47:30
        
        The fact you are looking at one game is telling... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:56:22
        
        No that was those arguing against it! (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:58:20
    - Goals are stats (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:09:21
      - Not only that they are not subjective... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:31:01
      - Yes which have already happened (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:24:23
        
        Something which *some* of us don’t seem to grasp (not you)… (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:59:11
        
        Sums it up perfectly 👍 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:13:18
    - Two good examples last season (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 12:56:13
      - Leicester have also lost their main chance provider (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:11:40
        
        (As did we, twice, with Maddison and Buendía) (n/m) (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:00:58
        
        ExGellent point (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:25:34
        
        Tru dat (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 13:16:42

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