NBTTT - XG - Wrath of the Barclay

NBTTT - XG

For those of you who still don't understand / see the value of XG here is a nice little explainer video:

User Posted Link

Once again for the benefit of our american friend: IT IS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE A PREDICTOR OF GOALS. It is a measure of the probability of a chance being scored.

E.g the XG of a penalty is c 0.75 in most models. I.e. A penalty will result in a goal roughly 3 times our of 4. XG will never be able to predict if a specific penalty will be scored.

It is useful when it VARIES from the number of goals scored by a team / player because it tells you about their ability to convert chances. I.e. elite players will consistently out perform their XG. This is why it doesn't correlate because it doesn't take account of the specific player taking the chance.

Like any stat it's not perfect, but it does tell you something.

Posted By: Knitted Jesus on September 1st 2023 at 12:36:37

Message Thread

NBTTT - XG (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Sep 1, 12:36:37
- I (n/m) (Other Football) - Boyer, Sep 1, 16:52:26
  - I (n/m) (Other Football) - Boyer, Sep 1, 17:00:48
- Interesting. (Other Football) - Cardiff Canary, Sep 1, 14:24:50
  - Amazed that more people don't get this simple point. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:37:43
    - Can you link me up to the data for, say, 5 years of (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 14:39:49
      - Are you guys having a fucking laugh.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:46:35
        
        You could save us the trouble, as you've obviously got all the data (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 14:48:59
        
        I published some data a while back.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:53:53
        
        Was it published in a peer-reviewed journal? (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 15:29:52
        
        Sorry that you are to lazy to do any research. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 15:58:58
        
        Nice deflection (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 16:42:55
        
        You did no research…. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 18:05:31
        
        Send over your datasets when you find them (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 18:41:21
    - Can you actually back that up? (Other Football) - SimonOTBC, Sep 1, 14:39:22
      - See above. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:47:42
- 42 (n/m) (Other Football) - Deep Thought, Sep 1, 13:46:35
- The problem is the zealot(s) who refuse to see the failings (Other Football) - Henclrikus, Sep 1, 13:31:13
  - The problem is those who think it’s ‘that deep’ (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:39:34
    - Penalties is a prime example... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:47:41
      - You’ve already been told it’s for all pens you mental DARVO cunt (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:54:16
        
        Again you have proven my point... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:58:12
        
        Are you saying that the xG for pens is wrong based on all pens taken? (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 13:59:55
        
        I agree with the point around subjectivity being a factor (Other Football) - SimonOTBC, Sep 1, 14:14:52
        
        Agreed but where xG fails... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:21:12
        
        But that is exactly what it is for (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Sep 1, 14:24:49
        
        Again.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:43:14
        
        But the probability doesn't match the reality... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:40:04
        
        I'm saying xG is a poor system..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:14:25
        
        Read and digest cunt (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:29:57
        
        Excellent magazine, worth a read (n/m) (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:44:52
        
        Potd (n/m) (Other Football) - Chris Peacock, Sep 1, 15:09:35
        
        It's dedicated to SCC... (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:55:16
        
        Lol (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:49:38
        
        😄😄😄 (n/m) (Other Football) - norwaay, Sep 1, 14:47:52
        
        But the probability doesn't match reality. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:40:59
      - And God forbid anyone "thinking deeply" (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:48:35
        
        ^^^^^not a deep thinker... (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:09:59
        
        You certainly aren’t (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:12:06
        
        How about DARVO cunts? (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:55:22
  - Finally, its clearly subjective meaning... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:34:01
- It's supposed to be a predictor of goals.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:28:14
  - It’s not a prediction (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:53:43
    - Ok it's a measure but.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:23:09
      - Subjective. That's the whole point. (n/m) (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:50:43
      - They don't match each and every individual case, no (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:48:54
        
        You clearly don't understand the subject. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 16:02:05
        
        Dude, it's not a problem (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 16:16:33
  - Either you are trolling or as someone once said... (Other Football) - Knitted Jesus, Sep 1, 13:40:18
    - If the probability was correct it would match actual goals... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:53:27
      - It's expected not predicted goals. (Other Football) - trafford_canary, Sep 1, 14:11:09
        
        👍👍👍 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:30:46
      - There are no samples of predicted goals you DARVO cunt (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:57:15
  - Maybe in your head lol (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:30:33
- Over the course of a season…. (Other Football) - SimonOTBC, Sep 1, 12:41:36
  - Somewhere on the east Norfolk coast (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 12:45:15
    - “Rousing himself” (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:08:17
- Yes, it’s about trends, not to be used to predict individual match results (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 12:39:08
  - How useful is something when you would need... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:45:48
    - I think you're falling into the trap of taking it too seriously (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 13:55:33
      - I fully understand it's a rough average of performance. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:08:01
        
        It would be mad to take into account player/team quality (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:10:59
        
        Yet bookies do this exact thing.... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:18:33
        
        It’s nothing to do with fucking betting!!! (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:37:35
        
        Why do you keep talking about bookies? (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 14:22:06
        
        Exactly, thanks for proving my point. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 14:35:21
        
        It's a measure of performance, nothing more. (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:59:56
        
        Your reply could not be any more incorrect. (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 18:14:24
        
        You're missing the point, perhaps deliberately at this stage (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 14:41:44
        
        At least this stops you abusing women I suppose (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:38:32
  - Not sure how any stat could anyway tbh (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 12:49:42
    - Huh, what utter bollocks..... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:38:14
      - The event which happened! (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:47:30
        
        The fact you are looking at one game is telling... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:56:22
        
        No that was those arguing against it! (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:58:20
    - Goals are stats (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:09:21
      - Not only that they are not subjective... (Other Football) - usacanary, Sep 1, 13:31:01
      - Yes which have already happened (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:24:23
        
        Something which *some* of us don’t seem to grasp (not you)… (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:59:11
        
        Sums it up perfectly 👍 (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 14:13:18
    - Two good examples last season (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 12:56:13
      - Leicester have also lost their main chance provider (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 13:11:40
        
        (As did we, twice, with Maddison and Buendía) (n/m) (Other Football) - APB, Sep 1, 14:00:58
        
        ExGellent point (n/m) (Other Football) - SCC 28, Sep 1, 13:25:34
        
        Tru dat (n/m) (Other Football) - jamesward, Sep 1, 13:16:42

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