latest ukr/russia conflict ramblings...

from an itk chap, take it or leave it, up to you.

"Let me start with the much talked about news that the US and Russia has been quietly negotiating.
It is obviously nothing that is new, or even ground breaking.

Mostly it has been low level talks about nukes, and to avoid misunderstandings between NATO and Russia.
It is here good to note that regardless of the rhetoric Russia has been keeping to every single nuclear agreement up to date.
Lately it has indeed gone up the food chain.

And, what might sometime in the future become peace negotiations has at least been seeded.
But it will not come just yet. Ukraine must still win a bit more before Russia is ready to go home.
Or China invades and it will go very fast.

Ukraine is not ready yet, nor is Russia.
Europe is still ready to stick it out, in fact the situation is improving in Europe on energy and food.

The US is quite happy seeing the Russian problem being solved once and for all. Well, at least for quite some time.
It leaves their back free as the west deals with China.
What will be the end when real negotiations start?
As I have said time and again, when the Russians run out of equipment, and that clock is steadily ticking down.

Missiles
It is telling that Russias constant attacking with missiles have almost stopped.
Yes, they are still lobbing a few each day as a reminder that they exist, but it is nothing like before.
And most of them are fired against lesser towns and villages that are not yet covered by Air Defence Systems.

The good Russian stuff (well, sort of good) is almost totally depleted, and around 800 missiles remain in the Russian stockpile.
It is still possible that there will be a couple of more rounds of missiles and drones on a larger scale, but it is becoming less likely by the day, and less effectual by the day.

At the same time top of the line western Air Defence Systems continues to galumph into Ukraine.
This means that fewer and fewer missiles and drones get to their targets.

The best systems have 100 percent success rate (Iris-T). And the worst ones (older) have a success rate of over 80 percent, the average is above 90 percent and climbing.
At the same time it seems like the Iranian deliveries of drones have dried up, and no Iranian missiles seem to have arrived (yet at least) to Russia. It is starting to look like they will not get more gear from Iran.

If Russia continues at the current pace of 3-4 missiles per day they can continue firing for another 200 days, perhaps 250 days if we count newly produced missiles arrive at pre-war rate of production. The latter is unlikely, perhaps they can coble together one per week due to sanctions.

Ukraine on the other hand is both building their own, and are now receiving cruise missiles with ranges above 500km. And, they will soon receive their ATACMs in larger numbers. Ukraine have some, sort of as a test if they will use them in the allowed manner.

Missiles are though less important than tanks and artillery in Russia. But very important for Ukraine.

End of offensives
Russia no longer has any offensive capability at all. 500 tanks does not cut it.
Ukraine is soon getting both Abrams and Leopard II tanks. And they already have more tanks than Russia does.
Russia no longer have enough long range artillery to lay the ground for an offensive. Ukraine is receiving new systems each day.

Russia knows this. And they are changing their tactics. Now it is back to defensive lines only. And they are building them on a massive scale, and they are building them everywhere.
In Ukraine, in neighbouring parts of Russia, heck even in Siberia.
Many pundits mistakenly think this is for the winter, and that in the spring Russia will come storming forth in a big push.
How wrong they are.

Without heavy equipment you just can't storm forth against a better equipped enemy that has numerical superiority.
And with an ever widening technology gap this equation just becomes ridiculous.
Russia knows this.

Another sign is that Russia has started to blow the bridges behind them. An army that is doing a tactical retreat for the winter is not blowing up bridges, they will need them in the spring.
No, they are blowing up bridges to defend themselves from a stronger army that is coming for them.
It is simple really.
Problem is that Ukraine is good at crossing rivers and have half of all the bridging equipment in Europe.

By now Russia is just holding on in the hope that by being stubborn they will get something in the upcoming negotiations.
Obviously they are wrong in this. They will at best get assurances about their territorial integrity.
Winter is Coming

Rasputitza
The season of mud is upon both parties.
This is obviously slowing down Ukraine, but with better and more mobile gear they are slowly pushing forward using lighter modern armoured vehicles.
It is slow going, but very steady.
Russia is now only trying in Bakhmut and Vuhledar (Pavlivka to be specific). The latter is a try to take back territory that Ukraine have liberated recently (Pavlivka).
Let us leave Putins genital fantasies about Bakhmut behind for now.

Vuhledar
This is where the war will be decided. At least geographically, the war is already decided in most other respects. The Ukrainians just have to do the legwork and kill more Russians and chuck the remainders across the border.
Vuhledar is the lynchpin to do that. By taking nearby Pavlivka Ukraine open up access to roads leading to many interesting places behind Russian lines.

They can push down the road eastwards to Novotroits'ke and the H20 up to Donetsk and open a new front there.
They can go southeast to Volnovakha and onwards to Mariupol.
Or southwest towards Tokmak and Melitopol.
Or even all of them at once, and the entire time using a fairly well built up road network.
Good for Rasputitza.

Russia will have to deplete the other fronts to reinforce here, or they will lose Donetsk and the rest.
Problem is that Ukraine has enough on the other fronts to continue attacking at those. Vuhledar will simultaneously tie down significant Russian resources. Or Ukraine will concentrate here and just smash through when the ground firms up later in the winter.

Winter is Coming
And it is not the friend of Russia.
With far better equipment and logistics the Ukrainians will be fat, happy and warm.
Russia will be hungry, depressed and freesing. So much so that many Russians will die from the Winter.

And with the cold comes solid ground, perfect for belting across the endless fields of Northern Ukraine on the frozen ground with heavy equipment. Expect progress soon to pick up the pace as the ground goes from mud to rock hard surface.
What few tanks Russia have will disappear in the ensuing tank battles.
And tanks will be incredibly important all of a sudden, because there will be no greenery to hide in.
And Ukraine sees well due to satellites, drones, and so on. Tracked artillery and heavy tanks will have a field day (in the true sense of the phrase).

Mobilisation
At a loss rate of 3000 per day Russia is losing an entire mobilisation phase each 100 days.
Don't expect this number to go down, expect it to go up as time passes and the technological devolvement of Russia continues.
This will lead to political will devolving.
This will lead to popular morale devolving.

Peace talks
Quietly and slowly the stage is set for the negotiations.
Ukraine and the allies know that they have won, and they are prepaired to do the legwork all the way to Moscow if needed.
Russia knows that they have lost, and they are for now hoping for a miracle.
But, slowly every number and metric is inching towards Russia having to throw in the towel.
Or that someone throws in the towel for them (China).
Now the only choice left to Russia is to throw in the towel willingly, walk home, and hope that China does not Rear End them without vaseline.

Russia is now talking more and more, and at ever higher levels.
This is a sign of what is to come.
I still say 24th of December, it is all in the numbers of death and destruction.
If not I will insert a new date, and that is 21st of September as Tanks roll from Khodynka via Tverskaya to the Red Square flying that gorgeous Blue and Yellow flag... I call this the crazy stubborn Ivan option."

Posted By: Tombs on November 9th 2022 at 20:54:07

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