Or they generally go behind in games

True expected goals are not independent from the score in a match. Teams chasing the game (particularly in leagues like the Champ where teams are relatively even in strength) typically create more when they are behind, than they do when scores are level or when they are in front.

Which can explain high XG but relatively low points. Likewise, low XG and high points can indicate a team that scores early and then tends to sit back and hang on.

Posted By: Mecagoenti on November 5th 2022 at 17:38:52

Message Thread

Phew (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:04:33
- So which has a higher Correlation (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:07:39
  - xG by far (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:09:08
    - I’d have thought the xg table matches the league table closely (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 5, 17:11:17
      - Mostly but professional dont use xG to make betting predictions. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:14:30
      - Yeah champ this season has some crazy outliers though (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:13:40
        
        I will bet you PPG of the first half of the season has..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:18:14
        
        Would doubt that very much (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:24:06
        
        Well you would be wrong. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:34:02
        
        Very much doubt that (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:37:21
        
        You are like one of these internet medical experts...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:40:11
        
        In shockling news... better strikers take their chances more often. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:15:29
        
        WBA have shit strikers? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:18:18
        
        Well clearly or playing shit. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:19:53
        
        Or they generally go behind in games (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:38:52
        
        And it also takes into account what the oppo do (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:18:36
        
        WBA are second in the xG table.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:20:43
        
        The MAJOR problem with xG..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:23:13
        
        yep, the companies who take predictions seriously (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:27:00
        
        Pretty much spot on. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:31:27
        
        Early days… (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 5, 17:15:11
        
        we are getting towards the half way point. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:16:46
- XG is bollocks today (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:06:03
  - Why would it count the 2v1? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:07:26
    - it wouldn't because XG is a bit shit (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:09:33
      - Don’t be silly (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 5, 17:12:16
        
        Yeah it has to be counted at a consistent point (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:17:44
        
        the fact is though, that the companies that use expected goals (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:21:22
        
        It's not silly - the true XG developed by companies like Smartodds (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:15:49
        
        Yeah 1% chance ooooh (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:19:25
        
        not sure what you mean (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:22:51

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