the fact is though, that the companies that use expected goals

to make profit do rate the quality and danger of every single attack; not just those that end in shots. These are the people putting money behind their XG models.

It takes a lot more manpower obviously to do that But it does highlight a limitation of XG and why it doesn't always tell the whole story,

Posted By: Mecagoenti on November 5th 2022 at 17:21:22

Message Thread

Phew (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:04:33
- So which has a higher Correlation (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:07:39
  - xG by far (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:09:08
    - I’d have thought the xg table matches the league table closely (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 5, 17:11:17
      - Mostly but professional dont use xG to make betting predictions. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:14:30
      - Yeah champ this season has some crazy outliers though (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:13:40
        
        I will bet you PPG of the first half of the season has..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:18:14
        
        Would doubt that very much (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:24:06
        
        Well you would be wrong. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:34:02
        
        Very much doubt that (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:37:21
        
        You are like one of these internet medical experts...... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:40:11
        
        In shockling news... better strikers take their chances more often. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:15:29
        
        WBA have shit strikers? (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:18:18
        
        Well clearly or playing shit. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:19:53
        
        Or they generally go behind in games (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:38:52
        
        And it also takes into account what the oppo do (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:18:36
        
        WBA are second in the xG table.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:20:43
        
        The MAJOR problem with xG..... (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:23:13
        
        yep, the companies who take predictions seriously (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:27:00
        
        Pretty much spot on. (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:31:27
        
        Early days… (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 5, 17:15:11
        
        we are getting towards the half way point. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Nov 5, 17:16:46
- XG is bollocks today (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:06:03
  - Why would it count the 2v1? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:07:26
    - it wouldn't because XG is a bit shit (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:09:33
      - Don’t be silly (NCFC) - SimonOTBC, Nov 5, 17:12:16
        
        Yeah it has to be counted at a consistent point (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:17:44
        
        the fact is though, that the companies that use expected goals (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:21:22
        
        It's not silly - the true XG developed by companies like Smartodds (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:15:49
        
        Yeah 1% chance ooooh (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Nov 5, 17:19:25
        
        not sure what you mean (NCFC) - Mecagoenti, Nov 5, 17:22:51

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