My take

Russia will get control after a month or so of siege. But an insurgency will remain and they’ll never get full control. Much the same as us with Iraq and Afghan. They’ll “win” but not really “win” as there will always be enough resistance to cause mayhem for them.

The Russians are fighting a 1970s battle vs 2000s tech that we’ve given the Ukrainians. They can’t leave the roads with their tanks as they get bogged down. So the Ukrainians can wait and cause major problems by using the anti tank weapons provided in the bottlenecks they create. They can also get major morale boosting wins with stingers vs the Russian choppers.

Russia, despite their overwhelming size and inevitability of their goals in this situation, is incredibly out of date. Within the first 6hrs they stopped precision bombing (probably out of munitions) and began ground movement into contested air territory…madness. Air dominance is still not even ensured 9 days in, nor were precision strikes fully successful in eliminating anti-air capabilities, also hindering their air assault.
Their air-to-ground attacks have already diverted to unguided bombs in large part. Ukraine, despite the hopelessness of their fight, are outfighting the Russians who claimed 2 days to total victory. This is going to go on a lot longer yet. I suspect as it goes on, Putin will get more frustrated and drop higher munitions.

Posted By: Tony Martin on March 6th 2022 at 21:35:18

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