Of course more points make some difference

I'm not suggesting otherwise. But bookies' odds tell you one thing - in what circumstances will they pay out, and how much. They reflect all sorts of things - the state of their knowledge (highly imperfect - much is not even public), their ability to predict the future (even more so), their desire to induce people to bet (very high), against their desire not to have to pay out more than they receive (also very high) - so including considerations of the market in which they operate for example, their own aversion to risk and so on. Yes, odds do tend to tell you "something" about the actual possibility of a certain event, but the idea that they tell you with mathematical precision (or even that such an approach is possible in principle to a football season, or any unknowable future event) is utter nonsense.

Posted By: paulg on February 18th 2021 at 14:29:56

Message Thread

Updated % chance of winning the championship (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 10:19:01
- So the numbers have changed significantly in the last week? (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 12:20:57
  - It makes perfect sense. (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 12:34:33
    - Except a lot has happened in the mean time (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 12:59:37
    - That was meant as response to below (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 12:35:25
  - Your first sentence makes zero sense (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 12:29:00
    - Haha, it's like saying betting odds don't change when a team (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 18, 12:51:02
      - No it's not (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 13:11:04
        
        That's a different situation (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 18, 13:17:48
        
        Do Man City have a better chance now they're 10 points clear (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 18, 13:18:46
        
        obviously yes, I agree (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 13:37:43
        
        You are so weird (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 14:06:06
        
        Of course more points make some difference (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 14:29:56
        
        You have a very weird take on all this (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 18, 14:57:57
        
        perfectly true, yes (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 15:10:45
        
        Mathematical precision? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 14:42:34
        
        🤦‍♂️ (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 15:02:16
        
        "47%" ....? Go back to counting beans. (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 14:50:15
        
        Why are you comparing a situation (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 13:14:35
        
        A 6 point difference between us and Brentford (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 13:18:40
      - Exactly (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 13:02:58
- Is this the same super computer that last week said.. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 18, 10:30:47
  - It isn’t no (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 10:32:01
    - Someone posted it last week.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 18, 10:54:24
      - Ah (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 12:29:31
    - Let's play global thermonuclear war. (n/m) (NCFC) - DrDublin, Feb 18, 10:38:14

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