It makes perfect sense.

If I say to you on day 1, we have a 40% of winning the title, and on day 5, we have a 60% of winning the title, nothing much having happened in the meantime, you would be perfectly entitled to think I haven't got a clue what I'm talking about - these figures don't reflect reality. And you'd be right. Our chances of winning the title - at this stage - don't fluctuate wildly from week to week. It's being blinded by a false sense of certainty provided by numbers.

Posted By: paulg on February 18th 2021 at 12:34:33

Message Thread

Updated % chance of winning the championship (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 10:19:01
- So the numbers have changed significantly in the last week? (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 12:20:57
  - It makes perfect sense. (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 12:34:33
    - Except a lot has happened in the mean time (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 12:59:37
    - That was meant as response to below (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 12:35:25
  - Your first sentence makes zero sense (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 12:29:00
    - Haha, it's like saying betting odds don't change when a team (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 18, 12:51:02
      - No it's not (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 13:11:04
        
        That's a different situation (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 18, 13:17:48
        
        Do Man City have a better chance now they're 10 points clear (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 18, 13:18:46
        
        obviously yes, I agree (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 13:37:43
        
        You are so weird (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 14:06:06
        
        Of course more points make some difference (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 14:29:56
        
        You have a very weird take on all this (NCFC) - jamesward, Feb 18, 14:57:57
        
        perfectly true, yes (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 15:10:45
        
        Mathematical precision? (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 14:42:34
        
        🤦‍♂️ (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 15:02:16
        
        "47%" ....? Go back to counting beans. (n/m) (NCFC) - paulg, Feb 18, 14:50:15
        
        Why are you comparing a situation (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 13:14:35
        
        A 6 point difference between us and Brentford (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 13:18:40
      - Exactly (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 13:02:58
- Is this the same super computer that last week said.. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 18, 10:30:47
  - It isn’t no (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 10:32:01
    - Someone posted it last week.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 18, 10:54:24
      - Ah (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Feb 18, 12:29:31
    - Let's play global thermonuclear war. (n/m) (NCFC) - DrDublin, Feb 18, 10:38:14

Reply to Message

In order to add a post to the WotB Message Board you must be a registered WotB user.

If you are not yet registered then please visit the registration page. You should ensure that their browser is setup to accept cookies.