Retaining my optimists hat, the stats for the last few days

remain slightly better than expected based on the trajectories in Italy, France and Spain.

3 days ago we were neck and neck with Italy in terms of numbers of deaths at the "equivalent" stage of the outbreak (although we are actually 15 days later than them) but over the last 3 days the number of cases have only increased by 13%, 17% and 21.4% respectively and the number of deaths by 21%, 19% and 26%.

Italy had 388 deaths over the "equivalent" period whereas we had 189.

All of which viewed optimistically "could" (perhaps wishful thinking) indicate that the early measures introduced around a week to 10 days ago are having a degree of impact on the curve and you would hope that as the stricter measures kick in then there will be further impact, albeit perhaps not immediately. Also whereas Italy imposed a really strict lockdown straight away ours was more gradual so remains to be seen how that impacts on things.

Posted By: Jim on March 24th 2020 at 17:32:35

Message Thread

Epidemiologists ‘surprised and disappointed’ (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 17:12:10
- Retaining my optimists hat, the stats for the last few days (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 24, 17:32:35
  - You, an optimist 🤣😂🤣😆😅☺️🤣😂 (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Jumbo1, Mar 24, 18:28:13
  - Looks like italy have turned the corner (Coronavirus) - pinkney, Mar 24, 18:04:07
    - Yep should keep dropping now (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 18:12:45
      - That’s the problem (Coronavirus) - jampersands, Mar 24, 18:37:39
        
        There are only two real exit strategies, vaccine or herd immunity (Coronavirus) - Old Git, Mar 24, 19:05:51
        
        wife a biologist specialising in this sort of crap. she agrees, we are in this for the (Coronavirus) - Tony Martin, Mar 24, 19:26:23
        
        Hopefully can switch the tap on and off (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 19:30:57
        
        Herd immunity through suppression now (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 19:16:48
    - Good tv interview with Director of Bergamo Healthcare the other day... (Coronavirus) - Tombs, Mar 24, 18:10:40
  - Yes not looking as bad as Italy (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 17:39:37
    - Measures a week to 10 days ago (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 17:40:52
      - Not all of them. 14 days for some, less time for others. (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 24, 17:54:22
        
        3-4 week lag for deaths, mostly (n/m) (Coronavirus) - duke of york, Mar 24, 18:05:27
        
        Well then if our stats stay better now must be due to all that hand washing (Coronavirus) - Jim, Mar 24, 19:06:13
        
        I read an Italian epidemiologist (Coronavirus) - paulg, Mar 24, 21:28:42
        
        appears they had more exposure in Italy (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 19:20:43
  - You're supposed to give up and cry like a biatch. Jim. (n/m) (Coronavirus) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 24, 17:36:56
    - stop it proth, please (n/m) (Coronavirus) - shoddy, Mar 24, 17:56:55
      - Sorry . (n/m) (Coronavirus) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 24, 17:58:47
- Could be worse... we could have Trump... now there's an idiot beyond the pail. (n/m) (Coronavirus) - promethian1, Mar 24, 17:30:11
- Wow thats surprining.... (Coronavirus) - promethian1, Mar 24, 17:23:43
  - Excel centre being turned into a 4000 bed hospital (n/m) (Coronavirus) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 17:33:03
    - thatll free up some of the north norfolk coastal home holiday lets then (n/m) (Coronavirus) - Tombs, Mar 24, 17:46:45
- That's the controlled response. (n/m) (Coronavirus) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 24, 17:20:11
  - I'd say,what are the reasons by this pack of response? (Coronavirus) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 24, 17:26:44
    - Lack. (n/m) (Coronavirus) - protheroe fitzgibbon, Mar 24, 17:27:02

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