Yes, and it's not quite a gimme

though the Euros will have concentrated minds. In other times your Grieves and your Vaizeys and so on might have baulked at backing BoJo, and DUP support will ofc need renegotiating (and even with it, you don't need too many Tory defaulters to bring it all down). It's not given that he wins a confidence vote.

Problem being that said Tories know full well they would be utterly destroyed at the ballot box in the ensuing election. They could feasibly end up the fourth party after Brexit Party and Labour in some order followed by the Liberals (I think the LibDems' recent results flatter to deceive: but it's a genuine risk for them that I'm wrong). So they are more likely to hang in there and do what they can to prevent no-deal.

Best hope for the Tories is to actually deliver Brexit and have a year or two of Other Things before an election. Best hope for Labour is to embrace a Second Referendum and campaign to Remain within it - yes even with their Leave-voting constituencies. Plenty within each party grasp this simple reality. The ERG doesn't, neither does Corbyn, though.

Posted By: Old Man on June 8th 2019 at 10:15:56

Message Thread

FAO Old Git, re conversation last night (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, Jun 8, 09:43:51
- It’s a grey area (General Chat) - matgore, Jun 8, 10:37:33
  - MPs won’t vote to make that leader prime minister. No such vote exists. (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, Jun 8, 10:40:53
    - No guarantee Tory members will get a vote (General Chat) - SCC 28, Jun 8, 15:23:09
    - (So I’ve no idea where you get the ‘this is constitutionally correct’ thing from) (n/m) (General Chat) - Tricky Hawes, Jun 8, 10:42:33
      - Because Queenie appoints a PM (General Chat) - CWC, Jun 8, 11:16:01
- I love this post! Looking forward to OG's reply (n/m) (General Chat) - Bravo win or die, Jun 8, 09:57:50
  - Mostly likely won’t (n/m) (General Chat) - SCC 28, Jun 8, 13:23:28
- I was not aware of that. It is against parliamentary democracy, just as (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Jun 8, 09:49:31
  - Changed in '98 after the defeat to Blair (General Chat) - CWC, Jun 8, 10:04:10
    - This is scary as the new "leader" effecively writes a new manifesto (General Chat) - biffbro, Jun 8, 10:23:46
    - Yes, and it's not quite a gimme (General Chat) - Old Man, Jun 8, 10:15:56
      - The only hope for the Tories is a Deal (General Chat) - CWC, Jun 8, 10:50:17
        
        Brutal deconstruction of Boris by Matthew Parris in the Times (General Chat) - Old Man, Jun 8, 11:38:58
  - Morning Steve ! (n/m) (General Chat) - Augustus Pablo, Jun 8, 09:54:55
    - Morning (n/m) (General Chat) - Steve in Holland, Jun 8, 10:29:10

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