There was some academic research a while back...

Which concluded that most clubs had about a fifty/fifty success rate with signings.

The margins around that are then surprisingly tight. So, successful clubs were not much higher (~60%).

Which, in practical senses, means that if we sign 10 players in a year, then if we have 6 good ones instead of 5 we're doing well. In truth, if the churn is lower than that the ability to judge it on a year by year basis is very hard to tell.

After reading it all, I've tended to view our dealings a bit differently.

Looking at the transfermarket site at our year to year dealings, we signed a catastrophic load of dross the year we got van wolfwinkel, other than that I'd have said we've done okay.

Even that year, the difficulty was down to needing a completely new forward line all at the same time, and so the blame could be laid (in part) on the lack of succession planning in the preceding seasons.

Posted By: Cardiff Canary on June 28th 2018 at 10:26:07

Message Thread

Franke’s gone back to Germany on a season long loan (n/m) (NCFC) - Knitted Jesus, Jun 28, 08:08:53
- Which team? Dresden again? (n/m) (NCFC) - Steve in Holland, Jun 28, 10:46:22
- Another good example of money we’ve wasted. (n/m) (NCFC) - Darren Eadie, Jun 28, 08:43:31
  - Just a stupid reply. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 28, 15:20:27
  - There was some academic research a while back... (NCFC) - Cardiff Canary, Jun 28, 10:26:07
    - Not all players will make it.. (NCFC) - usacanary, Jun 28, 15:18:34
  - no it isn't. It's like all football clubs, some signings work (NCFC) - Chopper, Jun 28, 09:07:17
    - Well... Franke was bombed out of the club incredibly quickly last season (NCFC) - norway, Jun 28, 10:15:56
      - I know nowt, but wasn't there a 'rumour' at that time (NCFC) - Dunney, Jun 28, 10:46:29
        
        Yep (NCFC) - norway, Jun 28, 10:54:52
        
        ... (NCFC) - norway, Jun 28, 11:00:35
        
        My reply to this was genius (n/m) (NCFC) - Charles21, Jun 28, 11:08:57
    - Last summer's approach did seem to be sign some shit and hope it sticks. (NCFC) - lurd, Jun 28, 09:31:59
    - in the interest of fairness... (NCFC) - Darren Eadie, Jun 28, 09:16:34
      - Actually think this regime is pretty successful considering the amounts/wages we now pay (n/m) (NCFC) - BINMEN8R, Jun 28, 10:30:52
        
        Depends how people individually rate a signing I suppose as to whether they are seen... (NCFC) - Darren Eadie, Jun 28, 11:40:04
    - +1 (n/m) (NCFC) - bird table, Jun 28, 09:10:36
    - 👍 (n/m) (NCFC) - Dandy Highburyman, Jun 28, 09:08:36
  - Far less extreme than some though... (NCFC) - loz, Jun 28, 09:05:21
- A real turd of a player (n/m) (NCFC) - lurd, Jun 28, 08:41:21
- another German going home (n/m) (NCFC) - Gazzaman, Jun 28, 08:40:04
  - arf (n/m) (NCFC) - Steve in Holland, Jun 28, 10:46:04
- Option to buy as well. #AufWiedersehenMarcel (n/m) (NCFC) - JD3, Jun 28, 08:25:50

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