Ok. So according to that model, we have a 19% chance of getting at least 39 pts

4 out of 5 years we'd get relegated under the circumstances/model assumptions, staying up 1 out of those 5 years.

Sound about right? How's that match up with the betting market?

Posted By: essexcanaryOTBC on March 23rd 2016 at 21:47:57

Message Thread

So the probability (% chance) of us getting more than the following number of points (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 17:50:36
- 40 is almost never the magic number (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 23, 20:17:43
  - In fact 39 points has less than a 7% chance of relegation (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 23, 20:26:50
    - Ok. So according to that model, we have a 19% chance of getting at least 39 pts (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 21:47:57
      - The last 5 years 3rd bottom had (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 23, 22:21:06
        
        So, according to that model then we have a 19%-86% chance of reaching the magic (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 23:47:36
        
        Also a 100% chance of the magic total 24-45 points (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 00:00:28
        
        If you'd like to know where the term "magical 40 point mark" came from (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 24, 00:18:46
        
        That's not really a very sensible reply to a reasonable question now is it? (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 24, 00:08:04
- get (NCFC) - Tombs, Mar 23, 17:56:50
  - I am out. What's the predicted outcome of taking your advice then? (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 18:17:01

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