So the probability (% chance) of us getting more than the following number of points

from our remaining games according to this (wow) site, courtesy of SCC is:

User Posted Link

0 = 100% (28)
1 = 100% (29)
2 = 99% (30)
3 = 97% (31)
4 = 93% (32)
5 = 86% (33)
6 = 76% (34)
7 = 66% (35)
8 = 52% (36)
9 = 39% (37)
10 = 29% (38)
11 = 19% (39)
12 = 11% (40)
13 = 7% (41)
14 = 3% (42)
15 = 2% (43)
16 = 1% (44)
17+ = 0% (45-49)

So if 40 is the magic number to survive (eg 3 wins + 3 draws or 4 wins) then that's a 1 in 9 year event approximately, apparently. So 8 times we would get relegated and only stay up once out of 9 year attempts at achieving what we need to given the current table and this (wow) model.

If however it's less than 40 (the survival target) this year, then our chances obviously increase a bit in line with the the table above.

Obviously the assumptions behind these predictions matter hugely, and influence the outcome/predicted results significantly. Which, I understand are that home teams have an advantage (not sure by how much, doesn't say) and teams higher in the league also have an advantage (again don't know by how much though).

* based on the weighted method.

Posted By: essexcanaryOTBC on March 23rd 2016 at 17:50:36

Message Thread

So the probability (% chance) of us getting more than the following number of points (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 17:50:36
- 40 is almost never the magic number (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 23, 20:17:43
  - In fact 39 points has less than a 7% chance of relegation (n/m) (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 23, 20:26:50
    - Ok. So according to that model, we have a 19% chance of getting at least 39 pts (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 21:47:57
      - The last 5 years 3rd bottom had (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 23, 22:21:06
        
        So, according to that model then we have a 19%-86% chance of reaching the magic (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 23:47:36
        
        Also a 100% chance of the magic total 24-45 points (NCFC) - SCC 28, Mar 24, 00:00:28
        
        If you'd like to know where the term "magical 40 point mark" came from (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 24, 00:18:46
        
        That's not really a very sensible reply to a reasonable question now is it? (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 24, 00:08:04
- get (NCFC) - Tombs, Mar 23, 17:56:50
  - I am out. What's the predicted outcome of taking your advice then? (n/m) (NCFC) - essexcanaryOTBC, Mar 23, 18:17:01

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