I would a bet a kelly criterion % of my estimated edge.

You might want to look it up.......

Here.........

User Posted Link

You do realize the reason I know so much about all this?

Posted By: usacanary on December 29th 2013 at 20:03:21

Message Thread

OK, with exactly half the season over I did a Prediction of Tilt analysis. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:25:00
- Genius.... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Dec 29, 20:58:40
- can't disagree (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 18:53:55
  - That doesn't make sense (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:01:37
    - very very few good performances tbf (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 19:08:53
      - Man U, Chelsea, West Ham, Villa (n/m) (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:15:50
        
        against man u and chelsea we did ok (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 19:18:38
        
        Well most people seem to think we've got roughly what we deserve (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:25:31
- Respectfully, I think you're way off (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:40:22
  - would you like a friendly wager? (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:48:24
    - Nope, would rather cheer for my team, than cheer to be (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:51:15
      - If it takes 38 points to stay up........Norwich might be in deep trouble..... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:55:04
        
        Yes they might. Who knows? (n/m) (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:56:47
  - Based on what? (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Dec 29, 18:46:36
    - 10 games ago, everyone on here had Crystal Palace down (n/m) (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:52:33
    - Bottom clubs are starting to pick up some results (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:49:06
      - so you pulled it from your arse........... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:53:16
        
        Poor. You really can do better, you should be old enough (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:55:29
        
        I stated a fact..... you did zero analysis.....this is why bookies are rich (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:05:01
        
        So how much of your fortune are you betting that 33 is the (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 19:19:08
        
        is this what passes for "mature and reasonable debate" (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:40:02
        
        So, using all your data analysis, how much of your hard (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 19:47:25
        
        I would a bet a kelly criterion % of my estimated edge. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 20:03:21
        
        Gotta go, since you are in America, let me know how much (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 20:22:58
        
        I see (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:43:07
        
        1st...... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:46:41
  - based on what analysis? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:46:03
- And here is where everyone disagrees with you with no backup whatsoever... (NCFC) - Yellalee, Dec 29, 18:28:00
  - Yes, but as soon as I say 0.87 points.... its monkey tilt time.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:35:57

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