OK, with exactly half the season over I did a Prediction of Tilt analysis.

Every team has played 19 games so I like the data set.

There are 190 PL games remaining. Based on strength of schedule I predict it will only take 33 points to stay up this season. One of the lower totals of the past 12 seasons. (31 points were needed to stay up in 2009)

Trying to be positive. 19 points at this stage, even with our tough run in is a pretty good total if our only goal is to stay up.

Posted By: usacanary on December 29th 2013 at 18:25:00

Message Thread

OK, with exactly half the season over I did a Prediction of Tilt analysis. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:25:00
- Genius.... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Dec 29, 20:58:40
- can't disagree (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 18:53:55
  - That doesn't make sense (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:01:37
    - very very few good performances tbf (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 19:08:53
      - Man U, Chelsea, West Ham, Villa (n/m) (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:15:50
        
        against man u and chelsea we did ok (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 19:18:38
        
        Well most people seem to think we've got roughly what we deserve (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:25:31
- Respectfully, I think you're way off (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:40:22
  - would you like a friendly wager? (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:48:24
    - Nope, would rather cheer for my team, than cheer to be (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:51:15
      - If it takes 38 points to stay up........Norwich might be in deep trouble..... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:55:04
        
        Yes they might. Who knows? (n/m) (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:56:47
  - Based on what? (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Dec 29, 18:46:36
    - 10 games ago, everyone on here had Crystal Palace down (n/m) (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:52:33
    - Bottom clubs are starting to pick up some results (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:49:06
      - so you pulled it from your arse........... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:53:16
        
        Poor. You really can do better, you should be old enough (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:55:29
        
        I stated a fact..... you did zero analysis.....this is why bookies are rich (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:05:01
        
        So how much of your fortune are you betting that 33 is the (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 19:19:08
        
        is this what passes for "mature and reasonable debate" (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:40:02
        
        So, using all your data analysis, how much of your hard (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 19:47:25
        
        I would a bet a kelly criterion % of my estimated edge. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 20:03:21
        
        Gotta go, since you are in America, let me know how much (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 20:22:58
        
        I see (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:43:07
        
        1st...... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:46:41
  - based on what analysis? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:46:03
- And here is where everyone disagrees with you with no backup whatsoever... (NCFC) - Yellalee, Dec 29, 18:28:00
  - Yes, but as soon as I say 0.87 points.... its monkey tilt time.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:35:57

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