I stated a fact..... you did zero analysis.....this is why bookies are rich

People betting on gut instincts and opinions which are normally way off from the highest probability result.

Professional Sports betting syndicates don't sit around spouting opinions without hard analysis to back it up.

Here is a post I made a while back with a great link to an insight into football math computer modelling.

User Posted Link

Posted By: usacanary on December 29th 2013 at 19:05:01

Message Thread

OK, with exactly half the season over I did a Prediction of Tilt analysis. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:25:00
- Genius.... (NCFC) - Johnny Comecardiff, Dec 29, 20:58:40
- can't disagree (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 18:53:55
  - That doesn't make sense (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:01:37
    - very very few good performances tbf (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 19:08:53
      - Man U, Chelsea, West Ham, Villa (n/m) (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:15:50
        
        against man u and chelsea we did ok (NCFC) - SCC 28, Dec 29, 19:18:38
        
        Well most people seem to think we've got roughly what we deserve (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:25:31
- Respectfully, I think you're way off (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:40:22
  - would you like a friendly wager? (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:48:24
    - Nope, would rather cheer for my team, than cheer to be (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:51:15
      - If it takes 38 points to stay up........Norwich might be in deep trouble..... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:55:04
        
        Yes they might. Who knows? (n/m) (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:56:47
  - Based on what? (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Dec 29, 18:46:36
    - 10 games ago, everyone on here had Crystal Palace down (n/m) (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:52:33
    - Bottom clubs are starting to pick up some results (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:49:06
      - so you pulled it from your arse........... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:53:16
        
        Poor. You really can do better, you should be old enough (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 18:55:29
        
        I stated a fact..... you did zero analysis.....this is why bookies are rich (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:05:01
        
        So how much of your fortune are you betting that 33 is the (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 19:19:08
        
        is this what passes for "mature and reasonable debate" (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:40:02
        
        So, using all your data analysis, how much of your hard (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 19:47:25
        
        I would a bet a kelly criterion % of my estimated edge. (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 20:03:21
        
        Gotta go, since you are in America, let me know how much (NCFC) - SeattleSounders, Dec 29, 20:22:58
        
        I see (NCFC) - Huge Small, Dec 29, 19:43:07
        
        1st...... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 19:46:41
  - based on what analysis? (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:46:03
- And here is where everyone disagrees with you with no backup whatsoever... (NCFC) - Yellalee, Dec 29, 18:28:00
  - Yes, but as soon as I say 0.87 points.... its monkey tilt time.... (NCFC) - usacanary, Dec 29, 18:35:57

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