OK, simple explanation that "most" people can understand.

when you go to a bookies or an online bookie you will be given odds on

Norwich win
Swansea win
Draw

The odds on the three possible outcomes are based on probabilities.

For the Swansea game the current odds are (minus bookie vig and rounded)

Norwich win 13/4 (23%)
Swansea win 1/1 (49%)
Draw 5/2 (28%)

By using the above you estimate the average points per game (if the very same game were played 1 million times)

in this case its

Swansea 1.75 ppg

(49% x 3points + 28% x 1 point + 23% x 0 points)

Norwich 0.97 ppg

(23% x 3points + 28% x 1 point + 49% x 0 points)

Thats roughly how you can arrive roughly 1 point (0.97) from the Swansea game.

Doing the same calcs you can estimate any game based on opposition quality and venue (home or away)

Any questions?

Posted By: usacanary on February 6th 2012 at 00:02:53

Message Thread

USACanary - Can you explain something please (NCFC) - 51eve, Feb 5, 23:45:02
- OK, simple explanation that "most" people can understand. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 6, 00:02:53
  - Thanks for that (NCFC) - 51eve, Feb 6, 00:07:21
- ive got a Q about that as well (NCFC) - Only1Doherty, Feb 5, 23:48:49
  - No, that would be way off. There is no way....... (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 6, 00:04:53
- Most likely points gain on average. Add all the fractions up and it makes more sense. (n/m) (NCFC) - Yellalee, Feb 5, 23:46:17
  - Predicting games using 3 , 1 or 0 points is just silly. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 6, 00:09:43
  - It's a meanlingless statistic though, right? (NCFC) - 51eve, Feb 5, 23:49:04
    - How is a % probability meaningless? (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 6, 00:08:19
      - Until after the first ball is picked, when quite clearly the odds will shift, (NCFC) - tudders, Feb 6, 03:18:10
      - Are the two comparable? (NCFC) - 51eve, Feb 6, 00:14:45
        
        you cant pick a 0.5 point ball from the bag either....... (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 6, 00:16:09
        
        simple explanation. (NCFC) - usacanary, Feb 6, 00:19:11
        
        clearly not (NCFC) - 51eve, Feb 6, 00:45:45

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