I had some questions about the following post I made in February

User Posted Link

Both SCC and Jayson Blair have both made comments that naturally don't appear to make any logical sense.

Lets compare that prediction table back in Feb to today

team/today/Feb 19th/change

QPR /92/ 88/ 4
Norwich /83/ 79/ 4
Swansea /78/ 80/ -2
Cardiff /78/ 79/ -1
Leeds /75/ 76/ -1
Reading /74/ 63/ 11
NF /71/ 83/ -12
Burnley /69/ 70/ -1
Milwall /67/ 66/ 1
Hull /66/ 66/ 0
Leicester /66/ 73/ -7
Watford /66/ 67/ -1

Its no surprise that NF after being on a run from hell have dropped and Reading the total reverse.

There absolutely nothing unusual in that?

There will always be outliers in every short term data set.
Every promotion chasing team has hot and cold runs.
Thats why current form is meaningless, better to look over 30+ games which is far more representative of the strength of a team.
(i e the table doesnt lie)

When I first posted these tables I did explain in detail that some teams will do much better and some teams will do much worse but overall the correalation of form to the run in is strong meaning "on average" this is what a team will do.
If we look at all 12 of the clubs above and average the change.
The predictions have actually only changed by -0.4 points per team.
Meaning "on average" the top 12 teams have performed only very slightly worse than you would have predicted (some better, some worse, some the same)

I still stand by my comments about Reading, Millwall, Hull and Watford.

The maxiumum points the following can get if they win ALL 7 remaining games

Watford 77
Hull 77
Millwall 78
Reading 84

The first 3 obviously have almost no chance of the 2nd spot as it will take 80+ points

Reading still has a slim chance but are 7 points behind Norwich with only 21 to play for, which is a big gap at this stage of the season.
This after an incredible run of form.

If they do achieve 2nd they would have gone on a W15 D1 L0 streak since Feb 19th

Reading also has the slight edge on playoff teams below them so may look to consolidate their position in certain situations.

In seriousness the prediction tables are just a bit of harmless fun designed more than anything to look at how many points it takes "on average" to hit the various promotion positions.
Its predicts how ALL teams will do on average given their form in the first 30+ games of the seaon.

Let the mega monkey tilt begin.............

Posted By: usacanary on April 7th 2011 at 17:54:45

Message Thread

I had some questions about the following post I made in February (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 17:54:45
- All I want to know is "are we going up in an automatic place?" (Other Football) - South_West_Canary, Apr 7, 18:20:02
  - Fucked if I know.........I do know this........ (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 18:27:50
    - My gut insticts regarding NCFC are usually spot on. And they say we're going up (n/m) (Other Football) - South_West_Canary, Apr 7, 18:31:53
      - Obviously, I hope you are right. (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 18:46:41
- Isn't the whole point that predictions based on past form aren't very good? (Other Football) - Cart Gap Disco, Apr 7, 18:13:38
  - FWIW..... the above is also incorrect. (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 20:07:36
  - Your post is inaccurate. (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 18:18:14
    - Quibble (Other Football) - Cart Gap Disco, Apr 7, 18:23:27
      - Oh..... so I didnt say that then. (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 18:30:38
        
        OK you win - you were very wrong rather than completely wrong (Other Football) - Cart Gap Disco, Apr 7, 18:37:40
        
        You are making yourself look silly now. (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 18:43:57
        
        Deft change of point... (Other Football) - Cart Gap Disco, Apr 7, 19:05:24
        
        I love the way you totally ignore facts............ (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 19:13:15
        
        This is the part of hater tilting I dont get.......... (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 18:51:30
        
        I'm not a hater tilter (Other Football) - Cart Gap Disco, Apr 7, 19:11:07
        
        If it was truely a serious discussion............. (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 19:17:53
        
        But what are you predicting? (Other Football) - Cart Gap Disco, Apr 7, 19:33:12
        
        You arnt very good at reading are you? (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 19:55:58
        
        On this sort of stuff you are fairly strong and I think it's harsh that people are picking (Other Football) - Brandonio, Apr 7, 19:29:49
        
        I only get tilted by stupid people.............. (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 20:12:11
- Nice one (n/m) (Other Football) - duke of york, Apr 7, 18:04:26
  - ^^^ first (n/m) (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 18:06:33
- Changing the subject a min... (Other Football) - NiftyFiftyCity, Apr 7, 18:03:31
  - No. Why would he? (Other Football) - usacanary, Apr 7, 18:11:29
    - He replies to other people (Other Football) - NiftyFiftyCity, Apr 7, 20:33:27

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