Most bookies have average/poor models for various sports.
They often rely on the sharper market place to shape their lines.
But they do have high vig which takes care of most of the bigger errors!
(Most online bookies such as Bet 365 and William Hill will not let me bet with them FWIW)
With the playoff picture you could start with direct assumptions if you wanted an exact figure.
(1) Norwich lose every game from now on.
(2) All of the 6 teams below us win EVERY game not involved with playing each other.
That would give you the following
LEEDS 95
CHARLTON 87
COLCHESTER 89
SWINDON 90
MILLWALL 80
HUDDERSFIELD 82
To those totals you have 11 fixtures that would add in between 22 and 33 points (draw 2 points, win 3 points)
We have not clinched a play off place yet on Earth 2 where such an incredible senario is possible.
Posted By: usacanary on March 7th 2010 at 20:06:10
Message Thread
- You might not believe this but............ (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 18:14:37
- "I am going to run the numbers through a spread sheet to see all the possible senarios" (NCFC) - The Editor of Milk, Mar 7, 19:24:15
- You can do a monte carlo simulation. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:38:55
- You could (NCFC) - BerlinCanary, Mar 7, 19:49:25
- Most bookies have average/poor models for various sports. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:06:10
- Two points for a draw? (n/m) (NCFC) - curva nord, Mar 7, 20:19:16
- Yes, each team gets 1 point= 2 points overall. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:21:56
- Ah, the eleven games in the post below. I see it now. (n/m) (NCFC) - curva nord, Mar 7, 20:41:15
- Simplified prediction model based on form (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:34:23
- Yes, each team gets 1 point= 2 points overall. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:21:56
- Two points for a draw? (n/m) (NCFC) - curva nord, Mar 7, 20:19:16
- Most bookies have average/poor models for various sports. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:06:10
- You could (NCFC) - BerlinCanary, Mar 7, 19:49:25
- You never know, it may take quite some time... (n/m) (NCFC) - KentonCanary, Mar 7, 19:27:23
- You can do a monte carlo simulation. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:38:55
- 17 points clear of Huddersfield with 11 to play. (NCFC) - Arganth, Mar 7, 18:23:07
- I did a quick check here are the stats. (Stato warning) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:33:17
- Would you mind going back and double checking your figures? (NCFC) - KentonCanary, Mar 7, 19:35:17
- Done and done. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:47:15
- Would you mind going back and double checking your figures? (NCFC) - KentonCanary, Mar 7, 19:35:17
- the reality is we clinched that a long time ago (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Mar 7, 18:26:34
- its talk like that that got us into this mess in the 1st place (n/m) (NCFC) - selwyn, Mar 7, 19:20:29
- selwyn fuck off (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Mar 7, 20:53:55
- We should have listened to Selwyn back on August 18th............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:46:22
- its talk like that that got us into this mess in the 1st place (n/m) (NCFC) - selwyn, Mar 7, 19:20:29
- I did a quick check here are the stats. (Stato warning) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:33:17
- "I am going to run the numbers through a spread sheet to see all the possible senarios" (NCFC) - The Editor of Milk, Mar 7, 19:24:15
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