I did a quick check here are the stats. (Stato warning)

The six clubs below us have a total of 72 games left between them.
Of those 72 games , 22 games involve playing each other (30.5%)
These are the 11 individual matchups that make up the 22 games. (ignoring H/A)

LEEDS SWINDON
LEEDS MILLWALL
LEEDS CHARLTON
CHARLTON MILLWALL
CHARLTON HUDDERSFIELD
CHARLTON COLCHESTER
COLCHESTER MILLWALL
COLCHESTER SWINDON
COLCHESTER HUDDERSFIELD
SWINDON MILLWALL
MILLWALL HUDDERSFIELD

This is such a big chunk of their remaing fixtures that it would be pretty remarkable for any of the teams currently sitting 6th and 7th to even overtake our current total of 75 points.

The min amount of points needed to finish ABOVE the 7th place team over the past 8 seasons.

2001 74
2002 81
2003 73
2004 71
2005 70
2006 73
2007 70
2008 75

AVG 73.37 points

One more win would probably make it a certainty.

Posted By: usacanary on March 7th 2010 at 19:33:17

Message Thread

You might not believe this but............ (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 18:14:37
- "I am going to run the numbers through a spread sheet to see all the possible senarios" (NCFC) - The Editor of Milk, Mar 7, 19:24:15
  - You can do a monte carlo simulation. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:38:55
    - You could (NCFC) - BerlinCanary, Mar 7, 19:49:25
      - Most bookies have average/poor models for various sports. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:06:10
        
        Two points for a draw? (n/m) (NCFC) - curva nord, Mar 7, 20:19:16
        
        Yes, each team gets 1 point= 2 points overall. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:21:56
        
        Ah, the eleven games in the post below. I see it now. (n/m) (NCFC) - curva nord, Mar 7, 20:41:15
        
        Simplified prediction model based on form (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:34:23
  - You never know, it may take quite some time... (n/m) (NCFC) - KentonCanary, Mar 7, 19:27:23
- 17 points clear of Huddersfield with 11 to play. (NCFC) - Arganth, Mar 7, 18:23:07
  - I did a quick check here are the stats. (Stato warning) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:33:17
    - Would you mind going back and double checking your figures? (NCFC) - KentonCanary, Mar 7, 19:35:17
      - Done and done. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:47:15
  - the reality is we clinched that a long time ago (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Mar 7, 18:26:34
    - its talk like that that got us into this mess in the 1st place (n/m) (NCFC) - selwyn, Mar 7, 19:20:29
      - selwyn fuck off (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Mar 7, 20:53:55
      - We should have listened to Selwyn back on August 18th............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:46:22

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