You can do a monte carlo simulation.
You can weight each game and a % to each possible outcome based on form over the current season.
As an example if your average probablity of points is 2 points a game
Then obviously its in the mid/upper 2's when playing stockport and under 2 when playing Leeds/charlton
Posted By: usacanary on March 7th 2010 at 19:38:55
Message Thread
- You might not believe this but............ (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 18:14:37
- "I am going to run the numbers through a spread sheet to see all the possible senarios" (NCFC) - The Editor of Milk, Mar 7, 19:24:15
- You can do a monte carlo simulation. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:38:55
- You could (NCFC) - BerlinCanary, Mar 7, 19:49:25
- Most bookies have average/poor models for various sports. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:06:10
- Two points for a draw? (n/m) (NCFC) - curva nord, Mar 7, 20:19:16
- Yes, each team gets 1 point= 2 points overall. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:21:56
- Ah, the eleven games in the post below. I see it now. (n/m) (NCFC) - curva nord, Mar 7, 20:41:15
- Simplified prediction model based on form (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:34:23
- Yes, each team gets 1 point= 2 points overall. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:21:56
- Two points for a draw? (n/m) (NCFC) - curva nord, Mar 7, 20:19:16
- Most bookies have average/poor models for various sports. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 20:06:10
- You could (NCFC) - BerlinCanary, Mar 7, 19:49:25
- You never know, it may take quite some time... (n/m) (NCFC) - KentonCanary, Mar 7, 19:27:23
- You can do a monte carlo simulation. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:38:55
- 17 points clear of Huddersfield with 11 to play. (NCFC) - Arganth, Mar 7, 18:23:07
- I did a quick check here are the stats. (Stato warning) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:33:17
- Would you mind going back and double checking your figures? (NCFC) - KentonCanary, Mar 7, 19:35:17
- Done and done. (n/m) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:47:15
- Would you mind going back and double checking your figures? (NCFC) - KentonCanary, Mar 7, 19:35:17
- the reality is we clinched that a long time ago (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Mar 7, 18:26:34
- its talk like that that got us into this mess in the 1st place (n/m) (NCFC) - selwyn, Mar 7, 19:20:29
- selwyn fuck off (NCFC) - ghostof barry butler, Mar 7, 20:53:55
- We should have listened to Selwyn back on August 18th............. (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:46:22
- its talk like that that got us into this mess in the 1st place (n/m) (NCFC) - selwyn, Mar 7, 19:20:29
- I did a quick check here are the stats. (Stato warning) (NCFC) - usacanary, Mar 7, 19:33:17
- "I am going to run the numbers through a spread sheet to see all the possible senarios" (NCFC) - The Editor of Milk, Mar 7, 19:24:15
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