Good question. I think I have answered this multiple times but....

here we go.

(1) its subjective. Just like refs have the same rules, some give out a lot more cards than others. Its not an exact science. Don't treat it like its an exact stat like actual goals. its likely one guys opinion. I have seen ludicrous xG numbers.

(2) It predicts nothing. You cannot use it to predict how one team will do against another, say away from home.
Its based on average. Betting models are based on complex match up strength models.

(3) Good teams/players on average always outperform xG and bad teams unperformed xG
Messi has outperformed xG his whole career.
So when he is given a 0.25 chance in a game, its NOT a 0.25 when Messi has that chance.... its much higher.
Thats why better teams/players on average out perform xG
So when some s**tty striker is given the same 0.25 its really a much lower probability than 0.25

I could go on but if you arnt with me by now I cant help you

Posted By: usacanary, Jan 15, 16:00:36