Good questions

"I think it's worth noting that mobile rich people who have a choice are unlikely to choose the UK in the future."

The study would not support this finding, at least for the cohort it studies. The great majority of non-doms are in finance and professional services. The vision we have of non-doms all being entrepreneurs is wrong. London is such an attractive career destination for the relevant cohort, they will continue to come, unless we make changes that strongly affect London as a go to destination. FWIW, I think genuinely mobile entrepreneurs who can notionally set up a digital company anywhere in the world are never going to base their company here.

"Does the study look at the money they spend while here and the jobs they create." "Also does it look at indirect taxes such as VAT which high spending rich people pay a lot of?"

Study looks at this based on the days that people spend in the UK according to their filings, before/after leaving versus a control group. See section 7.3. Key point is "These findings underscore that emigrants keep spending substantial amounts of time in the UK, despite becoming non-resident for tax purposes.". Even if people in this cohort decided to pay tax elsewhere following the change, they still spend a lot of time here...they just tweak the number of days to sit just below the tax threshold. So according to this study, the indirect loss from expenditure expenditure is small. Arun did share some anecdotes along these lines too. People in this group keep their houses and continue to fly in on business, maybe summer here, keep their kids resident. They just shave their days.

Posted By: Under soil heating, Jun 28, 14:41:29