It might be more that Trump has consistently outperformed polls

Every time the pollsters say they've adjusted their methodology to compensate. Have they, though?

The Iowa poll showing Harris doing well there was a surprise and it was a well-run poll as well. If that's reflective of something bigger in those states Harris might indeed pull it off (and obviously I dealy want her to). But I fear this will be very close, with Trump ultimately edging it. He will lose the popular vote but that doesn't matter in the US system.

The other factor is the Senate and House. I find it hard to see far past both being Republican. Any Harris presidency will be hamstrung if so; any Trump presidency unrestrained.

Posted By: Old Man, Nov 5, 10:34:39