I fully understand it's a rough average of performance.

Here are the issues I have.

(a) as we proved with the penalty taker example it doesn't take into account quality of players or teams.
(b) Even when we look at things like actual goals scored by the whole division it doesn't match the probability assessed. This IS an average performance.
(c) it's clear it's underperformance in several areas is because it's pretty subjective.(outside of penalties)

Again I'm hearing terms like "thinking too deeply" and "taking it too seriously"
I wear those with a badge of honor.
I became filthy rich through betting sports using data sets that others were not using.
But hey ho, what do I know.
I'm just an expert with credentials and data to back it up.

Posted By: usacanary, Sep 1, 14:08:01