NBTTT - XG

For those of you who still don't understand / see the value of XG here is a nice little explainer video:

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Once again for the benefit of our american friend: IT IS NOT SUPPOSED TO BE A PREDICTOR OF GOALS. It is a measure of the probability of a chance being scored.

E.g the XG of a penalty is c 0.75 in most models. I.e. A penalty will result in a goal roughly 3 times our of 4. XG will never be able to predict if a specific penalty will be scored.

It is useful when it VARIES from the number of goals scored by a team / player because it tells you about their ability to convert chances. I.e. elite players will consistently out perform their XG. This is why it doesn't correlate because it doesn't take account of the specific player taking the chance.

Like any stat it's not perfect, but it does tell you something.

Posted By: Knitted Jesus, Sep 1, 12:36:37