To be fair this is decent analysis but.....

There are many competing factors here.

If there were 5 games to go then clearly a point for a bottom 3 club away to a top 3 club would be a great result.
But with two games to go we now have much more information.

Here are the competing factors in this game.

GD is super important here as the foxes essentially have an extra point as long as they dont get tonked vs Newcastle.
This makes a draw very attractive.
Unusually a draw is a great result for Newcastle as it locks up their European CL spot.

Clearly a win for the foxes vs Newcastle would have been the desired outcome (so relegation is in their own hands) but the importance of keeping it tight and protecting the GD cannot be understated.

Now it means that if Leicester win their last game they will almost 100% finish above Leeds and have a high probability of finishing above Everton (because of GD Everton would need to win to stay up)

As mentioned the importance of GD here cannot be understated. Its a pretty big edge.

Also from a game theory perspective the Leicester city approach vs West Ham is crystal clear.
A draw is worth nothing.

Posted By: usacanary, May 23, 14:40:21