Spare a thought for the poor old flu bug, these useless lockdowns have virtually wiped it

out

"The number of people suffering from flu has plunged by 95% to levels not seen in more than 130 years, according to experts and official data. Influenza has been “almost completely wiped out”, said Simon de Lusignan, professor of primary care at the University of Oxford and director of the Royal College of GPs research and surveillance centre, which focuses on flu. “I cannot think of a year this has happened.”

In the second week of January, usually the peak of the season, the number of influenza-like illnesses reported to GPs was 1.1 per 100,000 people, compared to a five-year average rate of 27.

Out of four million patients at 392 GP surgeries in England, 42 had influenza-like illness, or about 0.001%. The areas that escaped flu best were the Midlands and the East of England, each with a rate of 0.5. Flu has also disappeared in Wales, at 1.0 cases per 100,000 people, and vanished in Scotland, with 0.5.

Other measures confirm that flu has been all but eradicated this winter. In the second week of January, health analysts did a double take when they saw the flu positivity rate — a standard metric of community flu activity — was 0.0%. Not one of 1,894 samples tested positive.

There are normally thousands of people in hospital at this time of the year with flu. In the second week of January, the number of admissions in England for flu was zero.

John McCauley, director of the World Health Organisation’s collaborating centre for reference and research on influenza in London and one of the world’s leading flu experts, described the collapse in cases as “unprecedented”.

“The last time we had evidence of such low influenza rates was when we were still just counting influenza deaths, and that was in 1888, before the 1889/1890 flu pandemic. We don’t know what’s going to happen because we’ve never had flu knocked down to this level before. I think everybody’s dead who would have possibly had a season like this.”

Typically, a billion people get flu globally each year. This year, McCauley estimates, much “less than a tenth” of that figure will do so. Experts can see meaningful spread only in Cambodia, Bangladesh and the Ivory Coast.

Professor Martin Marshall, a GP in Newham, East London, and chairman of the Royal College of GPs, said the measures taken to fight the coronavirus are likely to be the main reason countries have knocked out another deadly disease.

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“Data from the RCGP’s research and surveillance centre suggests community prevalence of flu is around 95% lower than normal at this time of year in England, when compared to the five-year average. Whilst a staggering figure, it makes sense when you consider the lockdown restrictions, social distancing measures, and increased focus on maintaining good hygiene practices we are seeing at the moment — which will work to stop the spread of contagious illnesses such as colds and flu, as well as Covid-19.”

The size of the drop in flu cases is even more striking given that limited social mixing was allowed until the the third full lockdown this month.

“There has also been an excellent take up of the influenza vaccine this year, with more than 80% of over-65s coming forward for their jab,” Marshall said.

It is possible that the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, could have helped kill off the flu by raising some people’s immunity against other viruses. Ed Hill, a research fellow at the University of Warwick who specialises in modelling the spread of disease, said “reduced international travel” was another likely factor because this “disrupts the global circulation of influenza”.

There is a snag to the success, though. Scientists developing a vaccine for next year’s flu season are struggling because there are so few samples to work on. The drastically reduced flu numbers may also mean more of us are susceptible to it in future, having not acquired immunity this year. “It’s a nightmare to work out what comes next,” said McCauley. “If you have flu away for a year, then immunity will have waned. It could come back worse.”

Rowland Kao, professor of epidemiology and data science at the University of Edinburgh, said maintaining some of the changes to our lifestyles in the last year could help combat flu in years to come. “If one result of Covid-19 is that, after restrictions are eased we continue on with some patterns of activity — for example, if we continue with some lesser physical distancing activities, wash hands more thoroughly and frequently, or continue with mask wearing under some circumstances — then this could continue to keep flu numbers down.”

Dr Yasotha Browne, a GP in Southampton, said that after the pandemic it “should be less of a taboo” to rest, maintain social distancing and stay away from the workplace when you have a virus, which she suggested could help reduce transmission in future."

Posted By: Old Git, Feb 5, 17:53:18