....a mistake to make is to compare across countries

which are in very different starting positions and very different environments.

What we do know is that *in each country* you can see that lockdowns have very clear effects. They slow down transmission (and so, with a lag, hospitalisations and deaths).

Other factors - eg track and trace systems, behaviour, border controls - have big effects and therefore explain a lot of x-country variance.

Posted By: Tricky Hawes, Jan 14, 14:59:23